Development of a European multimodel ensemble system for seasonal-to-interannual prediction (DEMETER)
Development of a European multimodel ensemble system for seasonal-to-interannual prediction (DEMETER)
复制标题
DOI：
10.1175/bams-85-6-853
复制
发表时间：
2004-06-01
影响因子：
8
通讯作者：
Thomson, MC
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Palmer, TN;Alessandri, A;Thomson, MC
欧洲季节到年际预报多模式集合系统（DEMETER）的开发在欧洲一个联合项目DEMETER（欧洲季节到年际预报多模式集合系统的开发）中，开发了一个基于多模式集合的季节到年际预报系统。DEMETER系统包括七个全球大气-海洋耦合模型，每个模型都从一组初始条件运行。综合后报评价表明，增强的可靠性和技能的多模式集成在一个更传统的单模式集成方法。此外，还讨论了在疟疾和作物产量预测中应用季节集合预报的创新实例。DEMETER所遵循的战略涉及重要问题，如跨学科的沟通，气候模拟的缩小尺度，以及在应用部门使用概率预报信息，说明了季节到年际预测对整个社会的经济价值。
DEVELOPMENT OF A EUROPEAN MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE SYSTEM FOR SEASONAL TO INTERANNUAL PREDICTION (DEMETER)A multi-model ensemble-based system for seasonal-to-interannual prediction has been developed in a joint European project known as DEMETER (Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble Prediction System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction). The DEMETER system comprises seven global atmosphere-ocean coupled models, each running from an ensemble of initial conditions. Comprehensive hindcast evaluation demonstrates the enhanced reliability and skill of the multimodel ensemble over a more conventional single-model ensemble approach. In addition, innovative examples of the application of seasonal ensemble forecasts in malaria and crop yield prediction are discussed. The strategy followed in DEMETER deals with important problems such as communication across disciplines, downscaling of climate simulations, and use of probabilistic forecast information in the applications sector, illustrating the economic value of seasonal-to-interannual prediction for society as a whole.