Seismic Sequence Structure and Earthquakes Triggering Patterns
Seismic Sequence Structure and Earthquakes Triggering Patterns
复制标题
地震层序结构与地震触发模式
DOI：
10.4236/ojer.2016.51003
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发表时间：
2016
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
Paolo Balocchi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Giulio Riga;Paolo Balocchi
在一个震级值的时间分布范围内，在构造作用的影响下，主震前形成了具有多种特征的地震触发图象，据此可以早期识别大震的孕育阶段。本文的目的是通过考虑地震活动性的时空变化来识别和分类大地震前的预警模式。所采用的方法是图表式的，以目前用于估计金融市场的技术分析程序为基础。在研究的初始阶段，我们分析了参考文献中描述的地震序列类型（类型1：前震-主震-余震，类型2：主震-余震;类型3：震群）和地震周期的主要结构，其中最大和最小震级值表征了其发展的模式，直到主震发生变化。然后，我们评估了地震周期内前震，主震和余震的位置，以确定能量发射发生的确切时间的预警模式。对于一般随时间的变化，我们将预警模式分为两类：1）前进型地震模式; 2）闪震模式。最后，对与最大、最小震级波动有关的预警图象进行了分类，并将其形式与主震震源机制作了比较，提出了估算与各预警图象有关的主震震级值的图解方法。这些结果无疑有助于更好地了解大地震的孕育过程，提高未来地震预报的概率。
Within a time distribution of magnitude values, before any mainshock some earthquake triggering patterns with several features develop, under tectonic processes’ influence, through which it is possible to early identify the preparation phase of big earthquakes. The purpose of this article was to identify and classify the warning patterns that develop before a big earthquake by considering space-time seismicity variations. The methodological approach adopted was of graphical type, based on procedures of technical analysis currently used to estimate the financial markets. In the initial phase of the study we have analyzed the seismic sequences types described in the bibliography (type 1: foreshocks-mainshock-aftershocks, type 2: mainshock-aftershock; type 3: swarm) and the main structure of the seismic cycle, within which maximum and minimum magnitude values characterize the pattern that it develops until the main event changes. Then, we assessed the position of foreshocks, mainshock and aftershocks within the seismic cycle in order to identify the warning pattern that characterized the exact time when the energy emission occurs. As to the evolution normally shown over time, we have grouped the warning patterns in 2 categories: 1) progressive earthquake pattern; 2) flash earthquake pattern. Finally, we have made a classification of the warning pattern related to the fluctuations of maximum and minimum magnitude values, compared its form with the mainshock’s focal mechanism and suggested some graphic procedures in order to estimate the mainshock magnitude value associated with each warning pattern. The results we obtained unquestionably allow a better comprehension of preparation process of a large earthquake, improving the earthquakes forecasting probability in the next future.
DOI：
10.5860/choice.28-1579
发表时间：
2016
期刊：
--
影响因子：
--
作者：
Leon Bieber
通讯作者：
Leon Bieber