Conservation Status of North American Birds in the Face of Future Climate Change.
Conservation Status of North American Birds in the Face of Future Climate Change.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0135350
复制
发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Wilsey C
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Langham GM;Schuetz JG;Distler T;Soykan CU;Wilsey C
人类引起的气候变化日益被认为是生物过程和模式的基本驱动因素。众所周知，历史上的气候变化导致了许多分类群地理范围的变化，预计未来的气候变化将导致物种的更大范围的重新分布。因此，预测气候变化对未来生物多样性格局的影响将极大地有助于保护规划。利用北美繁殖期鸟类调查和奥杜邦圣诞鸟类统计这两个世界上最全面的大陆脊椎动物数据集，以及相关的分布模型，我们评估了588种北美鸟类在繁殖期和非繁殖期在一系列未来排放情景（SRES A2, A1B, B2）下到本世纪末的地理范围变化。在本研究中，我们发现，到本世纪末，在三种气候变化情景下，314种物种（53%）预计将失去超过一半的现有地理范围。有126个物种在没有扩大范围的情况下发生了损失；而对于188个物种来说，损失伴随着在新的替代范围内定居的潜力。我们发现在预测的气候敏感性和现有的保护优先级之间没有很强的联系。此外，物种响应与栖息地亲和性、迁移策略或气候变化情景之间的关系并不明显。我们的研究结果表明，需要将气候敏感性纳入当前的保护规划，并制定适应地理范围缩小和变化的适应性管理策略。许多北美鸟类的持久性将取决于它们在现有范围之外的气候适宜地区定居的能力和以适应气候为目标的管理行动。
Human-induced climate change is increasingly recognized as a fundamental driver of biological processes and patterns. Historic climate change is known to have caused shifts in the geographic ranges of many taxa and future climate change is expected to result in even greater redistributions of species. As a result, predicting the impact of climate change on future patterns of biodiversity will greatly aid conservation planning. Using the North American Breeding Bird Survey and Audubon Christmas Bird Count, two of the most comprehensive continental datasets of vertebrates in the world, and correlative distribution modeling, we assessed geographic range shifts for 588 North American bird species during both the breeding and non-breeding seasons under a range of future emission scenarios (SRES A2, A1B, B2) through the end of the century. Here we show that 314 species (53%) are projected to lose more than half of their current geographic range across three scenarios of climate change through the end of the century. For 126 species, loss occurs without concomitant range expansion; whereas for 188 species, loss is coupled with potential to colonize new replacement range. We found no strong associations between projected climate sensitivities and existing conservation prioritizations. Moreover, species responses were not clearly associated with habitat affinities, migration strategies, or climate change scenarios. Our results demonstrate the need to include climate sensitivity into current conservation planning and to develop adaptive management strategies that accommodate shrinking and shifting geographic ranges. The persistence of many North American birds will depend on their ability to colonize climatically suitable areas outside of current ranges and management actions that target climate adaptation.