Causes of the Long Stagnation of Japan During the 1990s: Financial or Real?
Causes of the Long Stagnation of Japan During the 1990s: Financial or Real?
复制标题
日本20世纪90年代长期停滞的原因：金融还是现实？
DOI：
10.3386/w7351
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发表时间：
1999
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
H. Yoshikawa
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Taizo Motonishi;H. Yoshikawa
企业投资是解释日本在20世纪90年代长期停滞的最重要因素。利用日本央行的实际盈利能力扩散指数和银行贷款意愿，我们估计了四类企业的投资函数：大型/小型和制造业/非制造业。我们的研究结果表明，对于大企业来说，融资约束并不显着，而对于小企业而言，情况恰恰相反。 1992-94 年投资下降主要是由实际因素造成的。然而，1997年开始的信贷紧缩使GDP增长率下降了1.6个百分点。
Corporate investment is the most important factor to explain the long stagnation of Japan during the 1990's. Using the Bank of Japan diffusion indices of real profitability' and banks' willingness to lend', we estimate investment functions for four groups of firms: large/small and manufacturing/non-manufacturing. Our results suggest that for large firms, financing constraints are not significant whereas the converse is true for small firms. A fall of investment during 1992-94 is largely explained by real factors. However, the credit crunch occurred beginning 1997 and it lowered the growth rate of GDP by 1.6%.