Climate services promise better decisions but mainly focus on better data
Climate services promise better decisions but mainly focus on better data
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DOI：
10.1038/s41558-021-01125-3
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发表时间：
2021-08-19
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Donner, Simon
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Findlater, Kieran;Webber, Sophie;Donner, Simon
气候服务的目的是使气候数据和信息能够用于对气候敏感的决策。然而，将气候服务建立在气候科学的规范和制度基础上造成了紧张关系，从而降低了气候服务的影响。气候服务旨在通过使气候信息“有用、可用和有用”来改善对气候敏感的决策。在这里，我们分析了27个专家访谈，以评估这种用户驱动的气候科学模型是否已在公共部门成功实施。我们表明，虽然气候服务承诺更好的决策，他们主要集中在提供更好的数据。气候科学的规范和机构在气候服务的运作中产生了三个关键的紧张关系：注重产品而不是过程;服务基于对需求的广泛假设而不是需求驱动;对产品的狭隘经济估值而不是对决策改进的评估。这些紧张关系有助于解释为什么气候服务经常在气候科学中产生名义上的变化，而这些变化是有希望的。转型变革要求气候服务考虑到不同的社会结构、行为和背景。整合社会科学不是需求驱动型气候服务的灵丹妙药，但肯定是一个先决条件。
Climate services aim to make climate data and information accessible for climate-sensitive decision-making. However, the grounding of climate services in the norms and institutions of climate science creates tensions that reduce the impact of climate services.Climate services are intended to improve climate-sensitive decisions by making climate information 'useful, useable and used'. Here, we analyse 27 expert interviews to evaluate whether this user-driven model of climate science has been successfully implemented in the public sector. We show that, although climate services promise better decision-making, they mainly focus on delivering better data. The norms and institutions of climate science produce three key tensions in operationalizing climate services: a focus on products rather than processes, services based on broad assumptions about demand rather than being demand-driven, and the narrow economic valuation of products rather than evaluation of improvements in decision-making. These tensions help explain why climate services often generate nominal changes in climate science where transformations are promised. Transformational change requires that climate services account for diverse social structures, behaviours and contexts. Integrating social science is no panacea for demand-driven climate services, but it is certainly a prerequisite.