Mitigation Options to Reduce Peak Air Temperature and Air-Conditioning Demand in the Context of a Warming Climate for a Tropical Coastal City
Mitigation Options to Reduce Peak Air Temperature and Air-Conditioning Demand in the Context of a Warming Climate for a Tropical Coastal City
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DOI：
10.1115/1.4051160
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发表时间：
2021-05
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
R. Pokhrel;J. Gonzalez-Cruz
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作者：
R. Pokhrel;J. Gonzalez-Cruz
空调（AC）需求最近增长到全球总电力的10%左右，国际能源署（IEA）预测，如果没有额外的政策干预，到2050年全球建筑物的制冷需求将增加三倍。这些增加对人类舒适度的能源需求的影响在热带沿海地区更为明显，这是由于高温和高湿度及其有限的能源资源。其中一个地区是加勒比地区，那里的建筑能源需求通常超过总电力的50%，并且由于气候变暖，预计这一需求将增加。建筑环境与当地环境之间的相互联系带来了一项挑战，即寻找新的方法来探讨未来能源需求的变化，以及减缓措施在遏制气候变化对脆弱的热带沿海城市日益增长的需求方面的作用。这项研究提出了中期的世纪和世纪末的冷却需求预测沿着与需求缓解措施的圣胡安大都市区在加勒比海岛的波多黎各使用高分辨率配置的天气研究和预报（WRF）模型加上建筑能源模型（BEM）的偏差校正社区地球系统模型（CESM 1）的全球模拟。世界城市数据库访问门户工具（WUDAPT）土地分类区（LCZ）弥补了边界元法在形态和城市参数方面的差距。中分辨率成像光谱仪土地覆盖土地利用是描绘所有自然类。将2008-2012年基线历史时期与气候和能源预测以及能源减缓备选方案进行了比较。所探讨的能源缓解方案包括在建筑物中使用太阳能、使用白色屋顶以及高效供暖、通风和空调系统。气候变化的影响被模拟为以与最高温度相同的速度增加最低温度。然而，预计世纪中期和末期的最高气温将分别上升1-1.5 °C和2 °C，相应地将峰值AC需求增加12.5%和25%。然而，探索的缓解方案超过了温度和AC需求的增加。2050年和2100年的AC需求减少潜力与能源缓解选项相比，需求减少了13%和1.5%。总体而言，与没有缓解方案的同期相比，世纪中期，需求减少潜力随低污染区的变化而变化，显示稀疏建筑的减少潜力高（32%），紧凑型低层建筑的减少潜力低（21%）。
Air conditioning (AC) demand has recently grown to about 10% of total electricity globally, and the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that the cooling requirement for buildings globally increases by three-fold by 2050 without additional policy interventions. The impacts of these increases for energy demand for human comfort are more pronounced in tropical coastal areas due to the high temperatures and humidity and their limited energy resources. One of those regions is the Caribbean, where building energy demands often exceed 50% of the total electricity, and this demand is projected to increase due to a warming climate. The interconnection between the built environment and the local environment introduces the challenge to find new approaches to explore future energy demand changes and the role of mitigation measures to curb the increasing demands for vulnerable tropical coastal cities due to climate change. This study presents mid-of-century and end-of-century cooling demand projections along with demand alleviation measures for the San Juan Metropolitan Area in the Caribbean Island of Puerto Rico using a high-resolution configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with Building Energy Model (BEM) forced by bias-corrected Community Earth Systems Model (CESM1) global simulations. The World Urban Database Access Portal Tool (WUDAPT) Land Class Zones (LCZs) bridge the gap required by BEM for their morphology and urban parameters. MODIS land covers land use is depicted for all-natural classes. The baseline historical period of 2008–2012 is compared with climate and energy projections in addition to energy mitigation options. Energy mitigation options explored include the integration of solar power in buildings, the use of white roofs, and high-efficiency heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems. The impact of climate change is simulated to increase minimum temperatures at the same rate as maximum temperatures. However, the maximum temperatures are projected to rise by 1–1.5 °C and 2 °C for mid- and end-of-century, respectively, increasing peak AC demand by 12.5% and 25%, correspondingly. However, the explored mitigation options surpass both increases in temperature and AC demand. The AC demand reduction potential with energy mitigation options for 2050 and 2100 decreases the need by 13% and 1.5% with the historical periods. Overall, the demand reduction potential varies with LCZs showing a high reduction potential for sparsely built (32%), and low for compact low rise (21%) for the mid-of-century period compared with the same period without mitigation options.