A fuzzy expert system for aviation risk assessment
A fuzzy expert system for aviation risk assessment
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DOI：
10.1016/j.eswa.2008.07.081
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发表时间：
2009-04
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
M. Hadjimichael
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Hadjimichael
飞行操作风险评估系统（FORAS）是一种以模糊专家系统的形式表示风险因素及其相互关系的风险建模方法。FORAS风险模型提供了一个量化的相对风险指数，代表了对一次飞行操作中潜在危险累积效应的估计。FORAS使获取人类专业知识的过程系统化，在专家系统中提供知识的自然表示，并使风险评估过程自动化。FORAS工具对航空安全部门检查风险趋势、对飞行员和调度员评估与每次航班相关的风险以及对航空公司管理层量化安全相关变化的影响都很有价值。由FORAS产生的定量相对风险指数允许在航班之间进行比较，并促进整个组织安全问题的沟通。
The Flight Operations Risk Assessment System (FORAS) is a risk modeling methodology which represents risk factors and their interrelationships as a fuzzy expert system. A FORAS risk model provides a quantitative relative risk index representing an estimate of the cumulative effects of potential hazards on a single flight operation. FORAS systematizes the process of eliciting human expertise, provides for a natural representation of the knowledge in an expert system, and automates the process of risk assessment. The FORAS tool is valuable to airline safety departments for examining risk trends, to pilots and dispatchers for assessing risks associated with each flight, and to airline management for quantifying the effects of making safety-related changes. The quantitative relative risk index generated by FORAS allows comparisons between flights, and facilitates the communication of safety issues throughout the organization.