Forest-linked livelihoods in a globalized world.
Forest-linked livelihoods in a globalized world.
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全球化世界中与森林相关的生计。
DOI：
10.1038/s41477-020-00814-9
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
18
通讯作者：
Oldekop JA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Oldekop JA
森林在关于可持续性、气候和生物多样性的全球对话中重新占据中心位置。在此，我们采用水平扫描方法，确定可能对森林和森林生计产生重大中长期影响的五个大规模趋势：森林大规模砍伐、森林砍伐、森林砍伐和森林破坏;农村人口结构变化;中低收入国家中产阶级的崛起;数字技术的可获得性、获取性和使用增加;大规模基础设施发展。这些趋势代表了人类和环境的进程，其地理范围和规模都异常巨大，难以逆转。它们正在创造新的农业和城市边界，改变现有的农村景观和做法，为新的保护优先事项开辟空间，并促进前所未有的可供当地社区、民间社会组织、政府和国际捐助者使用的监测和评估平台的发展。了解这些更大规模的动态不仅是支持森林在满足当地生计愿望方面发挥关键作用的关键，而且也是支持更全球范围内的其他可持续性挑战的关键。我们认为，更好地了解这些趋势和确定杠杆的变化需要研究界不仅继续建立在案例研究，主导了研究工作，但把一个更大的重视因果关系和因果机制，并产生更深入的了解如何地方，国家和国际地理尺度相互作用。
Forests have re-taken centre stage in global conversations about sustainability, climate and biodiversity. Here, we use a horizon scanning approach to identify five large-scale trends that are likely to have substantial medium- and long-term effects on forests and forest livelihoods: forest megadisturbances; changing rural demographics; the rise of the middle-class in low- and middle-income countries; increased availability, access and use of digital technologies; and large-scale infrastructure development. These trends represent human and environmental processes that are exceptionally large in geographical extent and magnitude, and difficult to reverse. They are creating new agricultural and urban frontiers, changing existing rural landscapes and practices, opening spaces for novel conservation priorities and facilitating an unprecedented development of monitoring and evaluation platforms that can be used by local communities, civil society organizations, governments and international donors. Understanding these larger-scale dynamics is key to support not only the critical role of forests in meeting livelihood aspirations locally, but also a range of other sustainability challenges more globally. We argue that a better understanding of these trends and the identification of levers for change requires that the research community not only continue to build on case studies that have dominated research efforts so far, but place a greater emphasis on causality and causal mechanisms, and generate a deeper understanding of how local, national and international geographical scales interact.