Predicting the date of leaf emergence for sugar maple across its native range
Predicting the date of leaf emergence for sugar maple across its native range
复制标题
预测糖枫在其原生范围内的出叶日期
DOI：
10.1139/cjfr-30-9-1429
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发表时间：
2000
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
P. Bernier
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
F. Raulier;P. Bernier
本文提出了一个冬冷春暖联合模式，用于预测糖枫（Acer saccharum Marsh.）树该模型使用两个本地数据进行校准，在两个糖枫树的立场，在连续两年的对比叶状日期和从文献中获得的数据，并选择跨越整个范围的糖枫树分布。尽管所使用的数据的差异，超过84%的观测到的叶理日期的变化解释的模型。最早和最晚的叶理形成日期相隔41天，平均而言，预测日期在观测日期±1.5天的间隔内。不寻常的事件，如异常凉爽或暖泉的春天也很好地代表了模型。寒冷日数和度日数的计算都是从12月1日开始的，但是选择11月1日和4月1日之间的任何其他日期都会产生与叶理数据几乎一样好的拟合。冷冻的温度阈值...
A combined winter chilling and spring warming model is presented for predicting the date for the onset of foliation of sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) trees. The model is calibrated using both local data obtained in two sugar maple stands during two consecutive years with contrasting foliation dates and data obtained from the literature and chosen to span the full range of sugar maple distribution. Despite the disparity of the data used, more than 84% of the variation for the observed foliation date is explained by the model. Forty-one days separate the earliest and the latest foliation dates, and on average, the predicted date is within an interval of ±1.5 days of the observed date. Unusual events like exceptionally cool or warm springs are also well represented by the model. The counts for chilling days and degree-days are both started on December 1, but choosing any other date between November 1 and April 1 would yield nearly as good a fit to the foliation data. Temperature thresholds for chilling ...