Simulating vehicle fleet composition: A review of system dynamics models
Simulating vehicle fleet composition: A review of system dynamics models
复制标题
模拟车队组成：系统动力学模型回顾
DOI：
10.1016/j.rser.2019.109367
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发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
15.9
通讯作者：
P. Jochem
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jonatan J. Gómez Vilchez;P. Jochem
虽然电动汽车的市场发展是不确定的，但许多研究已经探索了电动汽车和替代动力总成技术的未来市场扩散。本文回顾了基于系统动力学模型的研究，并将这些文献分为“汽车工业导向”和“公共政策导向”。我们的研究表明，这些研究中的大多数模型在设计上都具有相同的基本特性，但不仅在目的上有所不同，而且在采用的假设上也有所不同，尤其是在消费者对动力系统的选择方面。综合起来，这些不同的建模练习可以被理解为一个模型库，以获得对不同关键市场的见解。根据所研究的模型类型，本文还讨论了一些方法问题，并提出了未来模型发展的建议。进一步的研究需要包括模型的相互联系，以更好地了解电池价格的演变。
While the market evolution of electric vehicles is uncertain, numerous studies have explored the future market diffusion of this and alternative powertrain technologies. This paper reviews studies that are based on system dynamics models and classifies this literature into ‘automotive industry-oriented’ and ‘public policy-oriented’. Our review shows that the models of most of these studies share basic properties by design, yet differ not only in purpose but also in the assumptions they adopt, particularly with regards to consumer choice of powertrains. Taken together, these diverse modelling exercises can be understood as a model library to gain insights into different key markets. In terms of the type of models examined, this paper also discusses some methodological issues and suggests future modelling developments. Further research needs include the interlinkage of models to better understand the evolution of the battery price.