An Agent-Based Model for Adoption of Clean Technology Using the Theory of Planned Behavior
An Agent-Based Model for Adoption of Clean Technology Using the Theory of Planned Behavior
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DOI：
10.1115/1.4047901
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发表时间：
2021-02
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
M. Pakravan;Nordica A. MacCarty
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Pakravan;Nordica A. MacCarty
在低收入地区采用技术是国际发展项目面临的主要挑战之一。世界上近40%的人口依赖明火和简陋的烹饪设备，这加剧了健康状况、森林砍伐和低效生物质燃烧对气候的影响。清洁炉灶等清洁技术替代品是通过可持续采用来实现其目标的最具挑战性的技术之一，因为缺乏系统的市场驱动的采用设计。因此，需要一种方法来提供关于目标客户如何评估和感知采用清洁技术的原因的洞察力。本研究的整体方法通过社会网络、个人和社会尺度信念以及理性决策行为的镜头捕捉技术采用。根据在乌干达北部Apac地区收集的数据，开发了一个基于代理的模型来模拟社区中新兴的采用行为。然后，四种不同的场景研究了采用模式如何因技术或干预策略的潜在变化而变化。这些情况包括炉子故障的影响、价格弹性、信息活动和社会网络的强度。结果表明，如果设计的技术更持久，信息运动为用户、政策制定者提供了现实的期望，教育项目致力于赋予妇女权力，社区社会关系被认为是影响最大化的，那么更高的采用率是可以实现的。本研究的应用为技术设计者、项目实施者和政策制定者提供了见解，以更新他们的实践，以实现可持续和大规模的清洁技术采用率。
Technology adoption in low-income regions is among the key challenges facing international development projects. Nearly 40% of the world's population relies on open fires and rudimentary cooking devices exacerbating health outcomes, deforestation, and climatic impacts of inefficient biomass burning. Clean technology alternatives such as clean cookstoves are among the most challenging technologies to approach their target goals through sustainable adoption due to a lack of systematic market-driven design for adoption. Thus, a method is needed to provide insight regarding how target customers evaluate and perceive causes for adopting a clean technology. The holistic approach of this study captures technology adoption through lenses of social networks, individual and society scale beliefs, and rational decision-making behavior. Based on the data collected in the Apac region in Northern Uganda, an agent-based model is developed to simulate emerging adoption behavior in a community. Then, four different scenarios investigate how adoption patterns change due to the potential changes in technology or intervention strategy. These scenarios include influence of stove malfunctions, price elasticity, information campaigns, and strength of a social network. Results suggest that higher adoption rates are achievable if designed technologies are more durable, information campaigns provide realistic expectations for users, policymakers, and education programs work toward women's empowerment, and communal social ties are recognized for influence maximization. The application of this study provides insight for technology designers, project implementers, and policymakers to update their practices for achieving sustainable and to the scale clean technology adoption rates.