Examining the social consequences of extreme weather: the outcomes of the 1946/1947 winter in upland Wales, UK
Examining the social consequences of extreme weather: the outcomes of the 1946/1947 winter in upland Wales, UK
复制标题
DOI：
10.1007/s10584-012-0413-9
复制
发表时间：
2012-07-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Macdonald, N.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jones, C. A.;Davies, S. J.;Macdonald, N.
据预测，极端天气形式在未来将变得更加频繁。然而，最难缓解的事件是意想不到的。在英国，冬季降雪的发生很难预测，无论是在空间上还是在时间上都是高度可变的，预计未来将变得不太常见。本文通过威尔士旱地羊场社区Cwm Tywi的案例研究，考察了1946/1947年严冬在当地范围内的后果。与其他更城市化的社区相比，这个社区在有记录以来最大的冬天表现出了极大的韧性，但居民最终放弃了家园，因为失去了很大一部分牲畜造成了情绪上的痛苦。除了雪灾的严重性外，还通过对访谈、口述历史和其他文献记载的分析，调查了人们对这一事件极端性质的看法，以及社区因乡村、自给自足和偏远地区而缓解的能力。这一案例研究提供了对脆弱性、适应和复原力的理解的复杂性的洞察，它们在时间和空间上是特定的。
Extreme forms of weather are predicted to become more frequent experiences in the future. However, the hardest event to mitigate against is the unexpected. In the UK, the occurrence of winter snowfall is difficult to predict, highly variable, both spatially and temporally and predicted to become less common in the future. This paper examines the consequences of the severe winter of 1946/1947 at the local scale through a Welsh case study of Cwm Tywi, a community of upland sheep farms. This community had shown great resilience during the snowiest winter on record in comparison with other, more urban communities, but the inhabitants eventually abandoned their homes because of the emotional distress caused by the loss of a large proportion of the livestock. In addition to the severity of the snow, perceptions of the extreme nature of this event and the community's ability to mitigate as a result of rurality, self-sufficiency and remoteness are investigated through the analysis of interviews, oral histories, and other documentary accounts. This case study provides an insight into the complexity of understanding vulnerability, adaptation and resilience, which are temporally and spatially specific.