Short- and long-term impacts of climate variations on the agrarian economy in pre-industrial Europe
Short- and long-term impacts of climate variations on the agrarian economy in pre-industrial Europe
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DOI：
10.3354/cr01145
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发表时间：
2013-03
期刊：
影响因子：
1.1
通讯作者：
Qing Pei;D. Zhang;Guodong Li;H. Lee
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Qing Pei;D. Zhang;Guodong Li;H. Lee
只有一小部分定量研究调查了欧洲前工业化时代气候变化对社会的短期和长期影响。因此，缺乏明确比较气候变化(短期)和气候变化(长期)后果的研究。本文主要研究了公元1500-1800年期间欧洲气候变化与农业经济动态之间的密切关系。运用ARX模型，在大空间和长时间尺度上分析了气候与过去农业经济之间的关系。本文基于统计分析和对17世纪经济危机的实证研究作为案例分析，提供了短期和长期的研究结果。短期内气候的负变化导致粮食价格上涨。由于价格粘性，粮食价格在一段时间内受到气候变化的影响，时间长达25年。研究期间气候变化的直接和长期影响加起来可能对农业经济产生重大影响。当气候变化持续30年以上时，就会发生气候变化。气候变化对农业经济的累积影响最终导致了前工业化欧洲的经济危机。
Only a small number of quantitative studies have investigated the shortand longterm impacts of climate variations on society during Europe’s pre-industrial era. Accordingly, there is a lack of research clearly comparing the consequences of climate variation (short-term) and climate change (long-term). This study focuses on the close relationship between climate variations and the dynamics of the agrarian economy in Europe during the period of 1500 to 1800 AD. ARX modeling was applied to analyze the relationship between climate and past agrarian economies, on large spatial and long temporal scales. Both shortand long-term findings are provided, based on statistical analysis, as well as the empirical study of the 17th century economic crisis as a case analysis. The negative climatic variations in the short-term caused grain prices to increase. Grain prices were affected for up to 25 yr by a period of climatic variation due to the price stickiness. The immediate and long-term effects of climate variations over the study period can add up to significantly influence agrarian economies. Climate change occurs when climate variations last for more than 30 yr. The accumulated effect of climate change on the agrarian economy ultimately resulted in an economic crisis in pre-industrial Europe.