Effect of Social Distancing on COVID-19 Incidence and Mortality in Iran Since February 20 to May 13, 2020: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis.
Effect of Social Distancing on COVID-19 Incidence and Mortality in Iran Since February 20 to May 13, 2020: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis.
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DOI：
10.2147/rmhp.s265079
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发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Taghdir M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Alimohamadi Y;Holakouie-Naieni K;Sepandi M;Taghdir M
已经采取了许多行动来控制新冠肺炎大流行，降低其发病率和死亡率。这方面最重要的措施之一是社会疏远。然而，关于社交距离对新冠肺炎发病率和死亡率的有效性的证据有限。因此，本研究旨在评估社会疏远措施对伊朗新冠肺炎发病率和死亡率的有效性。在目前的准实验研究中，我们评估了伊朗实施社交疏远措施前后新冠肺炎的日发病率和死亡人数。采用分段回归模型对数据进行分析。我们还使用基于Newey普通最小二乘(OLS)回归的方法对中断时间序列(ITS)进行了分析。实施社交距离后，新冠肺炎每日新增病例和死亡人数呈下降趋势[(？)=−1.70(95%CI=[−2.30-−1.10；P<；0.001])和(？=−0.07(95%CI=[−0.10−−0.05；P<；0.001]))。社会距离和其他公共卫生干预措施可以在一定程度上降低新冠肺炎的发病率和死亡率，这似乎对控制疫情至关重要。
Numerous actions have been taken to control the COVID-19 pandemic and reduce their morbidity and mortality. One of the most important measures in this regard is social distancing. However, there is limited evidence on the effectiveness of social distancing on COVID-19 incidence and mortality. Thus, the current study aimed to assess the effectiveness of social distancing measures on the COVID-19 incidence and mortality in Iran. In the current quasi-experimental study, we evaluated the daily incidence cases and the number of deaths of COVID-19 in Iran before and after the implementation of social distancing measures. The segmented regression model was used to analyze the data. We also performed the interrupted time series (ITS) analysis using Newey ordinary least squares (OLS) regression-based methods. After the implementation of social distancing, the trend of both daily new cases and deaths due to COVID-19 was decreasing [(ß = −1.70 (95% CI = [−2.30 – −1.10; P < 0.001])) and (ß = −0.07 (95% CI = [−0.10 − −0.05; P < 0.001], respectively))]. Social distancing along with other public health interventions could reduce the morbidity and mortality of COVID-19 to some degrees, and it seems to be crucial to control the pandemic.