Asymmetric Credit Growth and Current Account Imbalances in the Euro Area
Asymmetric Credit Growth and Current Account Imbalances in the Euro Area
复制标题
欧元区信贷增长不对称和经常账户失衡
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.2681078
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Robert Unger
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Robert Unger
欧元区危机往往与经常账户失衡的出现联系在一起。由于大多数赤字国家在这些失衡加剧的同时经历了明显的信贷繁荣，本文研究了国内信贷发展与经常账户余额之间的联系，区分了信贷拉动和信贷推动因素。拉动系数反映了银行贷款流向国内非金融私营部门的情况。这些资金流的增加预计将导致国内需求增加和经常账户恶化。推动因素衡量的是国内银行对其他欧元区国家债务人的债权流动，预计增加将导致外部需求增加和经常账户改善。使用面板误差修正规范，估计结果确认拉动系数是经常账户的重要决定因素，而推送系数的结果不那么明确。该文件还表明，流向非金融私营部门的银行贷款的变化(即拉动系数)--加上竞争力的变化--构成了推动赤字国家经常账户失衡加剧的最重要因素。因此，阻止私营部门债务增加似乎是抑制不可持续的经常账户失衡形成的一种有希望的方式。
The euro area crisis is often linked to the emergence of current account imbalances. As most of the deficit countries experienced pronounced credit booms at the same time that these imbalances were building up, this paper investigates the link between domestic credit developments and the current account balance, distinguishing between a credit pull and a credit push factor. The pull factor captures flows of bank loans to the domestic non-financial private sector. An increase in these flows is expected to lead to higher domestic demand and a deterioration of the current account. The push factor measures flows of claims of domestic banks on debtors in other euro-area countries, and an increase is expected to lead to higher external demand and an improvement in the current account. Using a panel error correction specification, the estimation results confirm that the pull factor is a significant determinant of the current account, whereas the results for the push factor are less clear-cut. The paper also shows that variations in the flows of bank loans to the non-financial private sector (i.e. the pull factor) - together with changes in competitiveness - constituted the most important factor driving the build-up of current account imbalances in the deficit countries. Accordingly, impeding an increase in private sector indebtedness seems to be a promising way to dampen the formation of unsustainable current account imbalances.