Interstate migration of the US poverty population: Immigration ''pushes'' and welfare magnet ''pulls''
Interstate migration of the US poverty population: Immigration ''pushes'' and welfare magnet ''pulls''
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DOI：
10.1007/bf02208337
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发表时间：
1996-07-01
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Carlson, MJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Frey, WH;Liaw, KL;Carlson, MJ
这项研究根据对最近人口普查数据的分析，评价了1985- 1990年期间贫穷移徙的社会和人口结构。特别注意两个政策相关因素的作用，建议与贫穷移徙。第一个问题是来自国外的移民的作用及其对收入低于贫困的长期居民从接收移民最多的国家向外净移民的影响。有人认为，这种反应可能是由于就业竞争或与移民有关的其他经济和社会成本。第二个问题涉及与国家福利津贴（AFDC和食品券付款）有关的贫困人口“磁铁"效应，鉴于即将对联邦福利方案进行改革，这一问题已受到重新审查。这两个因素对国家间贫穷移徙的影响是在更广泛的背景下评估的，其中考虑到其他社会人口分组，以及已知与解释国内移徙有关的国家一级的属性。这项研究采用了非常丰富的总移民流量数据库，特别是从1990年美国人口普查的全部移民样本（基于“居住5年前”的问题）制成表格。它还采用了一种分析技术，即嵌套合法模式，分别确定移民、福利和其他国家属性对移徙进程的“推"和”拉"效应。我们的发现相当清楚。美国某些州的大量移民确实影响了贫困人口的选择性向外移民，这对白人，黑人和其他非亚裔少数民族以及受教育程度最低的人来说更强。这些结果是一致的论点，国内移民的劳动力市场竞争，从类似的教育移民。此外，我们发现，移民的影响主要是作为一个“推”，而不是减少“拉”。相比之下，国家福利对贫困人口的州际迁移只产生最小的影响--无论是作为“拉动"还是”推动“，尽管这些人口中的某些人口部分比其他人更容易做出反应。除了这些调查结果，我们的研究结果显示，一个国家的种族和民族构成在留住和吸引类似种族和民族群体的移民方面产生了强烈的影响。这表明美国贫困人口有可能按种族和民族地位进行更大的跨州划分。
This study evaluates the social and demographic structure of poverty migration during the 1985-90 period based on an analysis of recent census data. Particular attention is given to the roles of two policy-relevant factors that are proposed to be linked to poverty migration. The first of these is the role of immigration from abroad and its effect on the net out-migration of longer-term residents with below-poverty incomes, from States receiving the highest volume of immigrants. Such a response, it is argued, could result from job competition or other economic and social costs associated with immigration. The second involves the poverty population ''magnet'' effect associated with State welfare benefits (AFDC and Food Stamp payments) which has come under renewed scrutiny in light of the impending reform of the federal welfare program. The impact of both of these factors on interstate poverty migration is evaluated in a broader context that takes cognizance of other sociodemographic subgroups, and State-level attributes that are known to be relevant in explaining internal migration. This research employs an exceptionally rich data base of aggregate migration flows, specially tabulated from the full migration sample of the 1990 US census (based on the ''residence 5 years ago'' question). It also employs an analysis technique, the nested legit model, which identifies separately the ''push'' and ''pull'' effects of immigration, welfare benefits, and other State attributes on the migration process. Our findings are fairly clear. The high volume of immigration to selected US States does affect a selective out-migration of the poverty population, which is stronger for whites, Blacks and other non-Asian minorities as well as the least-educated. These results are consistent with arguments that internal migrants are responding to labor market competition from similarly educated immigrants. Moreover, we found that the impact of immigration occurs primarily as a ''push'' rather than a reduced ''pull.'' In contrast, State welfare benefits exert only minimal effects on the interstate migration of the poverty population-either as ''pulls'' or ''pushes,'' although some demographic segments of that population are more prone to respond than others. In addition to these findings, our results reveal the strong impact that a State's racial and ethnic composition exerts in both retaining and attracting migrants of like race and ethnic groups. This suggests the potential for a greater cross-state division in the US poverty population, by race and ethnic status.