SEASONALITY AND MONETARY POLICY
SEASONALITY AND MONETARY POLICY
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季节性和货币政策
DOI：
10.1017/s1365100502020102
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发表时间：
2003
影响因子：
0.9
通讯作者：
B. Smith
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Pere Gomis;B. Smith
季节性波动与周期性波动一样大。美国的货币政策通过平滑名义利率来处理季节性问题。这样做的最初动机是名义利率的季节性给银行体系带来了反复的压力。我们建立了一个货币政策模型，在存在的季节性，把金融市场条件的前景。我们的调查结果如下。将名义利率或通货膨胀率与季节性变化隔离开来，是产生均衡不确定性和过度波动性的公式的基础。防止货币增长率的季节性并不受这个问题的影响。此外，在任何实施货币政策的方法下，货币工具目标值的设定都会影响大多数内生变量的季节性变化程度。这是货币政策发挥真实的作用的新渠道。当货币需求的变化产生季节性冲动时，消除名义利率季节性的理由最为充分。当季节性冲动来自真实的部门时，它是最弱的。
Seasonal fluctuations are as large as cyclical fluctuations. Monetary policy in the United States has dealt with seasonality by smoothing nominal rates of interest. The original motivation for this was that seasonality in nominal interest rates put recurring strain on the banking system. We build a model of monetary policy in the presence of seasonality that puts financial market conditions in the foreground. Our findings are as follows. Insulating nominal rates of interest or rates of inflation from seasonal variation are the basis for a formula for generating indeterminacy of equilibria and excess volatility. Preventing seasonality in the rate of monetary growth does not suffer from this problem. Moreover, under any method for conducting monetary policy, the setting of the target value of the monetary instrument will affect the degree of seasonal variability in most endogenous variables. This is a new channel by which monetary policy can have real effects. The case for eliminating seasonality in nominal rates of interest is strongest when seasonal impulses derive from shifts in money demand. It is weakest when seasonal impulses derive from the real sector.