The politics of anticipation: the IPCC and the negative emissions technologies experience
The politics of anticipation: the IPCC and the negative emissions technologies experience
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DOI：
10.1017/sus.2018.7
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发表时间：
2018-01-01
影响因子：
5.5
通讯作者：
Mahony, Martin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Beck, Silke;Mahony, Martin
非技术性总结。在后巴黎政治格局中，科学与政治的关系正在发生变化。我们讨论了这对政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）意味着什么，利用最近关于负排放技术（NET）的争议作为一个窗口，了解制定政策相关路径和情景的充满政治。我们认为，路径和情景具有“创造世界”的力量，可能以自己的形象塑造世界，创造新的政治现实。像IPCC这样的评估机构需要以新的方式反思这种权力，以及不断变化的政治环境的影响。技术摘要。2015年12月《巴黎协定》通过后，政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）开始重新考虑其在气候制度中的作用。基于科学和技术研究（STS）的工作，我们重建了IPCC在气候科学和政策制定之间的历史定位。然后，我们讨论了特殊的挑战，如果IPCC正在转移沿着频谱从归因原因和检测全球变暖的影响，对预测政策的解决方案，包括新兴技术，通过检查最近的争议负排放技术（NET）。我们的结论是，IPCC行使“世界制造”的权力，提供新的，政治上强大的愿景，可操作的未来，例如，基于投机技术的生物能源与碳捕获和储存（BECCS）。提供未来途径的任务对科学中立的传统理想提出了巨大挑战。我们认为，日益增长的政治需求的途径，其政治意义，需要重新思考的评估模式，超越专家驱动的中立输入。评估进程必须系统地考虑到其政治背景和影响。
Non-technical summary. In the post-Paris political landscape, the relationship between science and politics is changing. We discuss what this means for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), using recent controversies over negative emissions technologies (NETs) as a window into the fraught politics of producing policy-relevant pathways and scenarios. We suggest that pathways and scenarios have a 'world-making' power, potentially shaping the world in their own image and creating new political realities. Assessment bodies like the IPCC need to reflect on this power, and the implications of changing political contexts, in new ways.Technical summary. Following the adoption of the Paris Agreement of December 2015, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has begun to reconsider its role in the climate regime. Based on work in Science and Technology Studies (STS), we reconstruct how the IPCC has historically positioned itself between climate science and policy-making. We then discuss particular challenges raised if the IPCC is shifting along the spectrum from attributing causes and detecting impacts of global warming towards projecting policy solutions, including emerging technologies, by examining recent controversies over negative emissions technologies (NETs). We conclude that the IPCC exercises a 'world-making' power by providing new, politically powerful visions of actionable futures, for example, based on speculative technologies of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). The task of providing future pathways poses great challenges to conventional ideals of scientific neutrality. We argue that the growing political demand for pathways, and their political significance, requires rethinking modes of assessment that go beyond expert-driven neutral input. Assessment processes must take into account their political contexts and implications in a systematic way.