Coattail Voting in Recent Presidential Elections
Coattail Voting in Recent Presidential Elections
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最近总统选举中的顺风顺水投票
DOI：
10.2307/1958925
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发表时间：
1983
影响因子：
6.8
通讯作者：
J. Ferejohn
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
R. Calvert;J. Ferejohn
本文提出了一种分析总统选举中尾巴投票的程度和强度的方法。这种方法允许作者估计尾巴投票的大小，然后将这个估计分解为更“基本”的元素。给出了从1956年开始的总统选举的估计。尾票的确定及其分解取决于假设的投票决策理论。在本文中，我们提出了一个在大多数方面与传统SRC模型相似的投票决定模型；在总统选举年，国会代表的投票是由党派关系、对总统候选人的态度和国会竞选中特有的地方力量共同决定的（例如，可能由任职变量捕获）。这个模型允许对短期部队的力量和总统部队的效率进行单独的估计。将该模型应用于1956年以来的调查数据表明，在此期间，总统顾问的效率有所下降。此外，1980年的选举似乎也不是这一趋势的例外。另一方面，在这一时期，短期力量的强度没有任何特别的趋势；相反，特定选举背景下的特殊事件会在总统选举层面产生短期力量，但这些力量转移到地方选举的程度似乎有所下降。
This article presents a method for analyzing the extent and strength of coattail voting in presidential elections. This method allows the authors to estimate the magnitude of coattail voting and then to decompose this estimate into more “basic” elements. Estimates are given for presidential elections beginning with 1956. The determination of the coattail vote and its decomposition depend on the theory of the voting decision that is assumed. In this article we present a model of vote determination that is similar in most respects to the traditional SRC model; the vote for congressional representation in a presidential election year is determined jointly by partisan affiliation, attitudes toward the presidential candidates, and local forces unique to the congressional race (such as may be captured by an incumbency variable). This model permits the separate estimation of the strength of short-term forces and of the efficiency of the presidential coattails. Application of the model to survey data since 1956 indicates that efficiency of presidential coattails has declined during this period. Furthermore, the 1980 election does not appear to be an exception to this trend. On the other hand there has not been any particular trend in the strength of short-term forces during this period; instead events peculiar to the context of a specific election generate short-term forces at the level of the presidential election, but the degree to which these forces are carried over to local races seems to have declined.