Early retirement of power plants in climate mitigation scenarios
Early retirement of power plants in climate mitigation scenarios
复制标题
DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/ab96d3
复制
发表时间：
2020-09-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Davis, Steven J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fofrich, Robert;Tong, Dan;Davis, Steven J.
避免危险的气候变化的国际努力旨在大规模、快速地减少全球化石燃料 CO(2) 排放，包括电力行业几乎完全脱碳。然而，实现如此快速的减排可能取决于燃煤和天然气发电厂的提前退役。在这里，我们通过综合评估模型 (IAM) 分析了 171 种能源排放情景中的未来化石燃料电力需求，评估了发电基础设施的隐性退役和/或减少运行。尽管 IAM 是内生计算退休的，但每个模型的结构和方法各不相同；我们使用标准方法来推断所有六个主要 IAM 输出的退役情况，并且与 IAM 本身不同的是，我们从现有电力机队的年龄分布和特定区域的运营能力开始。我们发现，在符合国际气候目标（即保持全球变暖远低于 2 摄氏度或 1.5 摄氏度）的情况下，燃煤电厂的退役时间比历史上的情况要早一到三十年。如果电厂的建设是为了满足预计的化石电力需求，而不是按照历史水平和寿命运行，那么本世纪大约 200 Gt CO(2) 的额外排放量将与将全球变暖幅度控制在 2 摄氏度以下不相容。因此，雄心勃勃的气候缓解方案需要对电力基础设施的运行和/或退役时间表进行剧烈的、也许未被重视的变化。
International efforts to avoid dangerous climate change aim for large and rapid reductions of fossil fuel CO(2)emissions worldwide, including nearly complete decarbonization of the electric power sector. However, achieving such rapid reductions may depend on early retirement of coal- and natural gas-fired power plants. Here, we analyze future fossil fuel electricity demand in 171 energy-emissions scenarios from Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), evaluating the implicit retirements and/or reduced operation of generating infrastructure. Although IAMs calculate retirements endogenously, the structure and methods of each model differ; we use a standard approach to infer retirements in outputs from all six major IAMs and-unlike the IAMs themselves-we begin with the age distribution and region-specific operating capacities of the existing power fleet. We find that coal-fired power plants in scenarios consistent with international climate targets (i.e. keeping global warming well-below 2 degrees C or 1.5 degrees C) retire one to three decades earlier than historically has been the case. If plants are built to meet projected fossil electricity demand and instead allowed to operate at the level and over the lifetimes they have historically, the roughly 200 Gt CO(2)of additional emissions this century would be incompatible with keeping global warming well-below 2 degrees C. Thus, ambitious climate mitigation scenarios entail drastic, and perhaps un-appreciated, changes in the operating and/or retirement schedules of power infrastructure.