Modal-split effects of climate change: The effects of low water levels on the competitive position of inland waterway transport in the River Rhine area
Modal-split effects of climate change: The effects of low water levels on the competitive position of inland waterway transport in the River Rhine area
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DOI：
10.1016/j.tra.2009.01.004
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发表时间：
2011-12
期刊：
影响因子：
0.3
通讯作者：
O. Jonkeren;B. Jourquin;P. Rietveld;Vu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
O. Jonkeren;B. Jourquin;P. Rietveld;Vu
预计未来的气候变化将影响欧洲大多数主要自然水道的内陆水路运输。对于莱茵河，预计在夏季将出现更多和更长时间的低水位。在低水位期间，内河船舶不得不降低其装载系数，因此，每吨运输价格将增加。运输价格上涨的一个可能后果是，内陆水道运输与铁路和公路运输相比的竞争地位恶化，从而改变运输方式的划分。我们研究这个问题，使用一个基于GIS的软件模型称为NODUS，它提供了一个工具，详细分析货物运输在广泛的多式联运网络。我们评估了低水位对西北欧内陆水路运输成本的影响，在几种气候情景下。事实证明，对模态分裂的影响是有限的。在最极端的气候情景下，内河运输将损失目前欧洲内河运输市场每年运输量的约5.4%。2003年非常干旱的一年可以看作是这种情况的一个类似物。
Future climate change is expected to affect inland waterway transport in most main natural waterways in Europe. For the river Rhine it is expected that, in summer, more and longer periods with low water levels will occur. In periods of low water levels inland waterway vessels have to reduce their load factors and, as a result, transport prices per tonne will increase. One possible consequence of these higher transport prices is a deterioration of the competitive position of inland waterway transport compared with rail and road transport, and thus a change in modal split. We study this issue using a GIS-based software model called NODUS which provides a tool for the detailed analysis of freight transportation over extensive multimodal networks. We assess the effect of low water levels on the costs of transport operations for inland waterway transport in North West Europe under several climate scenarios. It turns out, that the effect on the modal split is limited. Under the most extreme climate scenario, inland waterway transport would lose about 5.4% of the quantity that is currently being transported annually in the part of the European inland waterway transport market considered. The very dry year of 2003 can be seen as an analogue for this scenario.