Changes in future air quality, deposition, and aerosol-cloud interactions under future climate and emission scenarios
Changes in future air quality, deposition, and aerosol-cloud interactions under future climate and emission scenarios
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未来气候和排放情景下未来空气质量、沉积和气溶胶-云相互作用的变化
DOI：
10.1016/j.atmosenv.2016.05.008
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发表时间：
2016
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
D. Streets
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Timothy Glotfelty;Yang Zhang;P. Karamchandani;D. Streets
全球气候变化的前景将产生广泛的影响，如生态压力和人类健康危害。令人担忧的一个方面是，气象强迫和空气污染物排放的变化将导致未来空气质量的变化。在这项研究中，GU-WRF/CHEM模式被用来模拟气候变化和排放在IPCC AR4 SRES A1B情景下的影响。未来4年(2020年、2030年、2040年和2050年)的平均值与当前年份(2001年和2010年)的平均值相比。在这种情况下，到21世纪中叶，全球空气质量预计将恶化，最大8小时臭氧水平全球平均增加2.5ppb，24小时平均PM2.5时全球平均增加0.3万亿μg−。然而，由于初级气溶胶排放和二次PM2.5气体前体排放的区域差异，PM2.5的变化更具区域性。在这种情况下，增加的NOx排放与更潮湿的气候相结合，提高了OH、HO2、H2O2和硝酸根的水平，并增加了大气的近地表氧化态。这与RCP情景下的研究结果不同，在RCP情景中，由于NOx排放减少，臭氧平流层恢复，CH4和VOCs增加，OH含量下降。氮氧化物和臭氧水平的增加会增加氮和臭氧的沉积，这表明在这种情况下，作物损害和生态系统压力可能会加剧。全球气溶胶水平的增强导致气溶胶光学厚度、云滴数浓度和云光学厚度的增强。这导致地球表面变暗，全球短波辐射平均减少1.2W/m−2。这种增强的变暗导致了比美国国家航空航天局的CCSM模拟中发现的更温和的变暖趋势和不同的辐射趋势，该模拟不包括GU-WRF/化学的高级化学和气溶胶处理，也不能用相同水平的详细处理来模拟气候变化和排放的影响。这项研究表明，需要有效的气候缓解和排放控制战略，以防止未来对健康的影响和生态系统压力。此外，用于制定这些战略的研究应使用具有复杂的化学和气溶胶相互作用处理的完全耦合模型，以提供更真实的大气表示。
The prospect of global climate change will have wide scale impacts, such as ecological stress and human health hazards. One aspect of concern is future changes in air quality that will result from changes in both meteorological forcing and air pollutant emissions. In this study, the GU-WRF/Chem model is employed to simulate the impact of changing climate and emissions following the IPCC AR4 SRES A1B scenario. An average of 4 future years (2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050) is compared against an average of 2 current years (2001 and 2010). Under this scenario, by the Mid-21st century global air quality is projected to degrade with a global average increase of 2.5 ppb in the maximum 8-hr O3level and of 0.3 μg m−3in 24-hr average PM2.5. However, PM2.5changes are more regional due to regional variations in primary aerosol emissions and emissions of gaseous precursor for secondary PM2.5. Increasing NOxemissions in this scenario combines with a wetter climate elevating levels of OH, HO2, H2O2, and the nitrate radical and increasing the atmosphere’s near surface oxidation state. This differs from findings under the RCP scenarios that experience declines in OH from reduced NOxemissions, stratospheric recovery of O3, and increases in CH4and VOCs. Increasing NOxand O3levels enhances the nitrogen and O3deposition, indicating potentially enhanced crop damage and ecosystem stress under this scenario. The enhanced global aerosol level results in enhancements in aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud optical thickness. This leads to dimming at the Earth’s surface with a global average reduction in shortwave radiation of 1.2 W m−2. This enhanced dimming leads to a more moderate warming trend and different trends in radiation than those found in NCAR’s CCSM simulation, which does not include the advanced chemistry and aerosol treatment of GU-WRF/Chem and cannot simulate the impacts of changing climate and emissions with the same level of detailed treatments. This study indicates that effective climate mitigation and emission control strategies are needed to prevent future health impact and ecosystem stress. Further, studies that are used to develop these strategies should use fully coupled models with sophisticated chemical and aerosol-interaction treatments that can provide a more realistic representation of the atmosphere.
影响因子：
5.1
作者：
Lamarque, J. -F.;Shindell, D. T.;Zeng, G.
通讯作者：
Zeng, G.