Environmental Risk and Averting Behavior: Predictive Validity of Jointly Estimated Revealed and Stated Behavior Data
Environmental Risk and Averting Behavior: Predictive Validity of Jointly Estimated Revealed and Stated Behavior Data
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环境风险和规避行为：联合估计的揭示和陈述的行为数据的预测有效性
DOI：
10.1007/s10640-005-4679-5
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发表时间：
2005
影响因子：
5.9
通讯作者：
J. Whitehead
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Whitehead
我们进行预测有效性测试，揭示和陈述的行为数据从一个小组调查的北卡罗来纳州沿海家庭。应用于飓风疏散行为。数据最初是在1998年飓风邦尼导致北卡罗来纳州的飓风疏散后收集的。受访者被问及他们的行为意图，如果飓风威胁北卡罗来纳州海岸在1999年飓风季节。在1999年飓风丹尼斯和弗洛伊德之后，进行了一项后续调查，以了解受访者是否表现出他们的意图。联合估计的显示和陈述的行为模型表明，假设的和真实的疏散行为是基于相同的选择过程。使用这个模型的预测与假设的偏差校正，我们发现，它预测实际的疏散行为与一个小的预测误差。这些结果表明，陈述的行为数据具有一定程度的预测有效性。
We conduct predictive validity tests using revealed and stated behavior data from a panel survey of North Carolina coastal households. The application is to hurricane evacuation behavior. Data was initially collected after Hurricane Bonnie led to hurricane evacuations in North Carolina in 1998. Respondents were asked for their behavioral intentions if a hurricane threatened the North Carolina coast during the 1999 hurricane season. Following Hurricanes Dennis and Floyd in 1999, a follow-up survey was conducted to see if respondents behaved as they intended. A jointly estimated revealed and stated behavior model indicates that the hypothetical and real evacuation behavior is based on the same choice process. Using predictions from this model with a hypothetical bias correction, we find that it predicts actual evacuation behavior with a small forecast error. These results suggest that stated behavior data has some degree of predictive validity.