Addressing Global Mortality from Ambient PM2.5
Addressing Global Mortality from Ambient PM2.5
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DOI：
10.1021/acs.est.5b01236
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发表时间：
2015-07-07
影响因子：
11.4
通讯作者：
Brauer, Michael
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Apte, Joshua S.;Marshall, Julian D.;Brauer, Michael
环境细颗粒物（PM2.5）是一个巨大的全球疾病负担。我们的分析使用了高分辨率（10公里，全球覆盖）浓度数据和为2010年全球疾病负担开发的病因特异性综合诊断响应（IER）函数，以评估区域和全球环境空气质量的改善如何降低PM2.5的归因死亡率。总体而言，根据世卫组织临时指南，积极的全球PM2.5缓解计划可以避免目前每年320万例死亡中的75万例（23%）。2010年）归因于环境PM2.5。在相对清洁的地区（北美，欧洲），PM2.5的适度改善将导致惊人的大死亡率，这是由于人口因素和非线性浓度-反应关系，描述了与几个重要死因相关的颗粒物风险。相比之下，在中国和印度等污染较严重的地区，要大幅降低PM2.5造成的死亡率，就需要大幅改善空气质量。此外，印度和中国的预测人口和流行病学转变意味着，要保持PM2.5导致的死亡率（每年每10万人的死亡人数）不变，PM2.5平均水平需要在未来15年内下降20-30%，才能抵消人口老龄化导致的PM2.5导致的死亡率增加。一项向世界上污染最严重的地区提供清洁空气的有效计划每年可以避免数十万人过早死亡。
Ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) has a large and well-documented global burden of disease. Our analysis uses high-resolution (10 km, global-coverage) concentration data and cause-specific integrated exposure-response (IER) functions developed for the Global Burden of Disease 2010 to assess how regional and global improvements in ambient air quality could reduce attributable mortality from PM2.5. Overall, an aggressive global program of PM2.5 mitigation in line with WHO interim guidelines could avoid 750 000 (23%) of the 3.2 million deaths per year currently (ca. 2010) attributable to ambient PM2.5. Modest improvements in PM2.5 in relatively clean regions (North America, Europe) would result in surprisingly large avoided mortality, owing to demographic factors and the nonlinear concentration-response relationship that describes the risk of particulate matter in relation to several important causes of death. In contrast, major improvements in air quality would be required to substantially reduce mortality from PM2.5 in more polluted regions, such as China and India. Moreover, forecasted demographic and epidemiological transitions in India and China imply that to keep PM2.5-attributable mortality rates (deaths per 100 000 people per year) constant, average PM2.5 levels would need to decline by similar to 20-30% over the next 15 years merely to offset increases in PM2.5-attributable mortality from aging populations. An effective program to deliver clean air to the world's most polluted regions could avoid several hundred thousand premature deaths each year.