Public Health Costs of Primary PM2.5 and Inorganic PM2.5 Precursor Emissions in the United States
Public Health Costs of Primary PM2.5 and Inorganic PM2.5 Precursor Emissions in the United States
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DOI：
10.1021/acs.est.5b06125
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发表时间：
2016-06-07
影响因子：
11.4
通讯作者：
Gao, H. Oliver
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Heo, Jinhyok;Adams, Peter J.;Gao, H. Oliver
目前估计排放对公众健康影响的方法计算成本太高，或者不能完全解决复杂的大气过程，往往将其应用限于政策研究。使用来自标记化学传输模型（CTM）模拟的简化形式模型，我们提出了每吨无机空气污染物PM2.5死亡率成本与36公里× 36公里的空间分辨率的源位置在美国，提供了最全面的一套这样的估计可与基于CTM的估计。我们的估计相差两个数量级。排放加权季节平均值估计为88，000 - 130，000美元/吨PM2.5（惰性初级），14，000 - 24，000美元/吨SO2，3，800 - 14，000美元/吨NOx和23，000 - 66，000美元/吨NH3。2005年排放的社会总成本估计为1.0万亿美元。与其他研究相比，我们的估计有相似的幅度和空间分布的主要PM2.5，但有很大的不同的空间模式的前体物种，其中二次化学是重要的。例如，在得克萨斯州、新墨西哥州和新英格兰州的许多地区发现NOx的差异超过10倍，在加州、得克萨斯州和缅因州的许多地区发现NH3的差异超过10倍。我们的方法允许随着排放清单和CTM的改进而更新，从而增强了将政策研究与最新大气科学联系起来的潜力。
Current methods of estimating the public health effects of emissions are computationally too expensive or do not fully address complex atmospheric processes, frequently limiting their applications to policy research. Using a reduced-form model derived from tagged chemical transport model (CTM) simulations, we present PM2.5 mortality costs per tonne of inorganic air pollutants with the 36 km x 36 km spatial resolution of source location in the United States, providing the most comprehensive set of such estimates comparable to CTM-based estimates. Our estimates vary by 2 orders of magnitude. Emission-weighted seasonal averages were estimated at $88,000-130,000/t PM2.5 (inert primary), $14,000-24,000/t SO2, $3,800-14,000/t NOx, and $23,000-66,000/t NH3. The aggregate social costs for year 2005 emissions were estimated at $1.0 trillion dollars. Compared to other studies, our estimates have similar magnitudes and spatial distributions for primary PM2.5 but substantially different spatial patterns for precursor species where secondary chemistry is important. For example, differences of more than a factor of 10 were found in many areas of Texas, New Mexico, and New England states for NOx and of California, Texas, and Maine for NH3. Our method allows for updates as emissions inventories and CTMs improve, enhancing the potential to link policy research to up-to-date atmospheric science.