The Doomsday Equation and 50 years beyond: new perspectives on the human‐water system
The Doomsday Equation and 50 years beyond: new perspectives on the human‐water system
复制标题
世界末日方程及 50 年后：人类-水系统的新视角
DOI：
10.1002/wat2.1080
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
A. Porporato
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
A. Parolari;G. Katul;A. Porporato
1960年，冯·福斯特（von Foerster）等人幽默地预测，人口增长将在世纪中期发生突变。他们所谓的“世界末日”要么来自有限资源的逐步退化，要么来自资源利用效率不断提高的人口的指数级增长，尽管这种资源的构成并不明确。目前，很少有人对水是可持续人口增长的最基本资源这一说法提出异议。多方面的证据表明，全球水系统表现出与类似的人口增长模式相关的非平凡动态。全球水系统的预测范围从有限的承载能力调节可获得的淡水，或“峰值可再生水”，以间断的演变与新的供应和提高效率，从技术和社会创新。这些预测可以被捕获，一阶，由一个单一的延迟微分方程与人水相互作用参数化的延迟内核，目前的供水人口的历史及其对水资源的影响。这个核心是人类水系统中社会、环境和技术因素的宏观表现;然而，数学形式仍然不受现有数据的约束。一个相关的对数周期幂律增长模型证实，全球用水量经历了快速增长和停滞的反复时期，这一模式与历史轶事非常一致。总之，这些模型表明，在21世纪中期，由于人口增长和水资源开发之间的延迟反馈，可能会导致水创新的新阶段。WIREs Water 2015，2：407-414。doi：10.1002/wat2.1080
In 1960, von Foerster et al. humorously predicted an abrupt transition in human population growth to occur in the mid‐21st century. Their so‐called ‘Doomsday’ emerged from either progressive degradation of a finite resource or faster‐than‐exponential growth of an increasingly resource‐use efficient population, though what constitutes this resource was not made explicit. At present, few dispute the claim that water is the most fundamental resource to sustainable human population growth. Multiple lines of evidence demonstrate that the global water system exhibits nontrivial dynamics linked to similar patterns in population growth. Projections of the global water system range from a finite carrying capacity regulated by accessible freshwater, or ‘peak renewable water,’ to punctuated evolution with new supplies and improved efficiency gained from technological and social innovation. These projections can be captured, to first order, by a single delay differential equation with human–water interactions parameterized as a delay kernel that links present water supply to the population history and its impacts on water resources. This kernel is a macroscopic representation of social, environmental, and technological factors operating in the human‐water system; however, the mathematical form remains unconstrained by available data. A related model of log‐periodic, power‐law growth confirms that global water use evolves through repeated periods of rapid growth and stagnation, a pattern remarkably consistent with historical anecdotes. Together, these models suggest a possible regime shift leading to a new phase of water innovation in the mid‐21st century that arises from delayed feedback between population growth and development of water resources. WIREs Water 2015, 2:407–414. doi: 10.1002/wat2.1080