A 5TH FREEDOM
A 5TH FREEDOM
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DOI：
10.1136/bmj.2.5471.1141
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发表时间：
1965-01-01
影响因子：
105.7
通讯作者：
BAIRD, D
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
BAIRD, D
然而，在原始社会，高生育率是人类生存的必要保障，在那里，各个年龄段的死亡率都很高，人们对生育的期望也很高。尽管人类的寿命很短，但在发达社会中这一点已不再存在，那里的死亡率很低，平均每个家庭2.3个孩子就足以确保人口的更替。高度发达国家在科学和技术方面取得的巨大进步，现在已成功地应用于某些不发达国家，使死亡率迅速下降，而这些社会过去为生存所必需的高生育率模式仍然存在，世界面临着人口的惊人增长，如果不加以控制，确实可能威胁到人类的生存。据估计，在发现农业之前，世界人口可能约为3000万至5000万，到17世纪中期为6.5亿，到19世纪初为10亿，到1950年约为20亿。各期间之平均年增长率分别为0. 1%、1. 0%及1. 5%。我将举几个例子来说明今天在不同类型的社会中正在发生的事情。现代化学疗法对人口的灾难性影响的一个例子可以在毛里求斯看到（伯内特，1961），那里在1946- 1948年利用滴滴涕和其他现代技术消灭疟疾的密集运动非常成功，婴儿死亡率在10年内从150/1000下降到50/1,000。总死亡率从28/1，000下降到10/1，000，人口增加了40%。印度。-在印度，尽管尼赫鲁（《泰晤士报》，1963年12月11日）和他的政府认识到人口增长的危险，
Whereas high fertility was a necessary safeguard for man's survival in primitive societies, where deaths at all ages were high and the expectation of. life was short, this no longer obtains in advanced societies, where death rates are so low that an averageof 2.3 children per family has sufficed to ensure replacement of the population. The great advances in science and technology in the highly developed countries have now been applied to certain of the underdeveloped countries with such success that death rates are falling rapidly, while the high fertility pattern, formerly necessary in these societies for survival, still obtains and the world is faced witha fantastic increase in population, which, if unchecked, may indeed threaten the survival of mankind. It has been estimated that the world population was possibly about 30-50 million before the discovery of agriculture, by the mid-seventeenth century it was 650 million, by the beginning of the nineteenth century 1,000 million, and by 1950 about 2,000 million. The average rate of increase per annum in each period has been 0.1, 1.0, and 1.5% respectively. I shall give a few examples of what is happening to-dayin different types of society.Mauritius.-An example of the catastrophic effectof modern chemotherapy on a population can be seen in Mauritius (Burnet, 1961), where an intensive campaign to eliminate malaria by the use of DDT and other modern techniques was so successful in 1946-8 that infant mortality fell from about 150 to 50/1,000 in 10 years. The general death rate fell from 28 to 10/1,000 and the population rose by 40%. India.-In India, though Nehru (Times, 11 December 1963) and his Government recognized the dangers of population increase and supporteda policy of birth control, in practice