Protected-area targets could be undermined by climate change-driven shifts in ecoregions and biomes
Protected-area targets could be undermined by climate change-driven shifts in ecoregions and biomes
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DOI：
10.1038/s43247-021-00270-z
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发表时间：
2021-09-29
影响因子：
7.9
通讯作者：
Gage, Josh
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dobrowski, Solomon Z.;Littlefield, Caitlin E.;Gage, Josh
扩大全球保护区网络对于应对生物多样性下降和气候危机至关重要。然而，气候变化将如何影响保护区网络内的生态系统代表性仍不清楚。在这里，我们使用空间气候模拟来研究+2摄氏度变暖情景下陆地生态区和生物群落的潜在气候驱动变化，以及实现30%面积保护目标的相关影响。我们发现，大约一半的土地面积将经历与不同生态区相对应的气候条件，近四分之一的土地面积将经历来自不同生物群落的气候。在预计保持气候稳定的地区中，46%目前完好无损（人类改造程度低）。在87%的生态区中，实现保护目标所需的面积超过了这些生态区中未受保护的、预计将保持气候稳定的面积。因此，我们建议优先方案需要明确考虑气候驱动的生物多样性模式的变化。根据空间气候相似物的分析，预期的气候变化可能使生态区或生物群落与一半以上陆地面积的气候条件分离，这使得通过扩大保护区来保护生物多样性变得复杂
Expanding the global protected area network is critical for addressing biodiversity declines and the climate crisis. However, how climate change will affect ecosystem representation within the protected area network remains unclear. Here we use spatial climate analogs to examine potential climate-driven shifts in terrestrial ecoregions and biomes under a +2 degrees C warming scenario and associated implications for achieving 30% area-based protection targets. We find that roughly half of land area will experience climate conditions that correspond with different ecoregions and nearly a quarter will experience climates from a different biome. Of the area projected to remain climatically stable, 46% is currently intact (low human modification). The area required to achieve protection targets in 87% of ecoregions exceeds the area that is intact, not protected, and projected to remain climatically stable within those ecoregions. Therefore, we propose that prioritization schemes will need to explicitly consider climate-driven changes in patterns of biodiversity.Preservation of biodiversity by expanding protected areas is complicated by expected climate change that could dissociate ecoregion or biome from climate conditions in over half of land area, according to analyses of spatial climate analogs