Effects of Commodity Price Shocks on Inflation: A Cross Country Analysis
Effects of Commodity Price Shocks on Inflation: A Cross Country Analysis
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大宗商品价格冲击对通胀的影响：跨国分析
DOI：
10.1093/oep/gpy015
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Atsushi Sekine; Takayuki Tsuruga
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Lin Tsung-Tse;Wang Li;Wang Ke;Grange Thomas;Hirayama Hideki;Atsushi Sekine; Takayuki Tsuruga
2000年代以来商品价格的大幅波动再次引起决策者对价格稳定的关切。本文利用跨国面板数据研究了大宗商品价格冲击对总体通货膨胀的影响。我们发现，商品价格冲击对通货膨胀的影响在冲击后一年内几乎消失。这种短暂的影响表明，对通胀产生持续第二轮影响的风险很低。虽然对价格水平的影响因国家类别而异，但暂时影响相当强劲。我们还考虑到商品价格冲击的影响可能因通货膨胀制度而异。即使在这种情况下，我们至少在汇率灵活的国家观察到了暂时的影响。
Large fluctuations in commodity prices since the 2000s are a renewed concern among policymakers about price stability. This paper investigates the effects of commodity price shocks on headline inflation with a cross-country panel. We find that the effects of commodity price shocks on inflation virtually disappear within about one year after the shock. This transitory effect suggests a low risk of a persistent second-round effect on inflation. While the effect on the price level varies across country groups, the transitory effect is fairly robust. We also allow for the possibility that the effect of commodity price shocks may vary, depending on inflation regimes. Even in this case, we observe the transitory effects at least in countries with exchange-rate flexibility.