Host, Weather and Virological Factors Drive Norovirus Epidemiology: Time-Series Analysis of Laboratory Surveillance Data in England and Wales
Host, Weather and Virological Factors Drive Norovirus Epidemiology: Time-Series Analysis of Laboratory Surveillance Data in England and Wales
复制标题
DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0006671
复制
发表时间：
2009-08-24
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Gray, Jim J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lopman, Ben;Armstrong, Ben;Gray, Jim J.
诺如病毒是发达国家传染性腹泻散发病例和暴发的最常见病因，具有复杂的流行病学特征，并具有很强的冬季季节性。方法：采用Poisson回归模型对1993 - 2006年英格兰和威尔士诺如病毒实验室报告的日计数数据进行时间序列拟合（率比（RR）= 0.85; 95%CI：每增加1 ℃为0.83至0.86）和相对湿度（RR = 0.980; 95%CI：每增加1%为0.973至0.987），温度具有更大的总体影响。新的诺如病毒变异体的出现（RR = 1.16; 95%CI：1.10 - 1.22）和低人群免疫力也与诺如病毒活性升高相关。温度和湿度，这可能是本地化的，有高度一致的影响，在每个地区的England and Wales.Conclusions：这些结果指出了一个复杂的主机，病毒和气候因素之间的相互作用驱动诺如病毒的流行模式。诺如病毒的增加与寒冷、干燥的温度、低群体免疫力和新的基因组2型4抗原变体的出现有关。
Norovirus, the most commonly identified cause of both sporadic cases and outbreaks of infectious diarrhoea in developed countries, exhibits a complex epidemiology and has a strong wintertime seasonality. Viral populations are dynamic and evolve under positive selection pressure.Methods: Time series-adapted Poisson regression models were fitted to daily counts of laboratory reports of norovirus in England and Wales from 1993 to 2006.Findings: Inverse linear associations with daily temperature over the previous seven weeks (rate ratio (RR) = 0.85; 95% CI: 0.83 to 0.86 for every 1 degrees C increase) and relative humidity over the previous five weeks (RR = 0.980; 95% CI: 0.973 to 0.987 for every 1% increase) were found, with temperature having a greater overall effect. The emergence of new norovirus variants (RR = 1.16; 95% CI: 1.10 to 1.22) and low population immunity were also associated with heightened norovirus activity. Temperature and humidity, which may be localised, had highly consistent effects in each region of England and Wales.Conclusions: These results point to a complex interplay between host, viral and climatic factors driving norovirus epidemic patterns. Increases in norovirus are associated with cold, dry temperature, low population immunity and the emergence of novel genogroup 2 type 4 antigenic variants.