Simultaneous Estimation of Risk and Time Preferences among Small-scale Cattle Farmers in West Africa
Simultaneous Estimation of Risk and Time Preferences among Small-scale Cattle Farmers in West Africa
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DOI：
10.1093/ajae/aau056
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发表时间：
2014-10-01
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Waibel, Hermann
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Liebenehm, Sabine;Waibel, Hermann
本文报告了西非以养牛为主的小规模农户的经济实地实验结果。我们同时估计风险和时间偏好，并研究人口和社会经济特征与每个偏好的相关性。我们分析的经验基础是2007年和2011年在马里和布基纳法索对211个家庭进行的面板数据调查，以及2011年对这些家庭的户主进行的经济实验。我们分析的理论基础是一个贴现效用模型。我们应用前景理论和拟双曲线贴现来估计未来效用流的现值。我们应用最大似然方法来联合估计风险和时间偏好，并研究偏好参数和可观察特征之间的相关性。我们发现，平均而言，西非的养牛户一般更厌恶风险，更耐心，比来自亚洲的类似情况的受访者。此外，风险和时间偏好与财富、教育和宗教相关。我们发现，财富和教育方面的限制与更大的风险规避和不耐烦有关。此外，在可兰经学校度过的时间与小概率的过度加权、更大的冒险行为和耐心呈正相关。
This article reports results from economic field experiments with cattle-dependent small-scale farmers in West Africa. We simultaneously estimate both risk and time preferences and examine how demographic and socio-economic characteristics are correlated with each preference. The empirical basis for our analysis is a panel data survey of 211 households conducted in Mali and Burkina Faso in 2007 and 2011, and economic experiments conducted with the heads of these households in 2011. The theoretical basis for our analysis is a discounted utility model. We apply prospect theory and quasi-hyperbolic discounting to estimate the present values of future utility streams. We apply a maximum likelihood approach to jointly estimate risk and time preferences, and to investigate the correlations among the preference parameters and observable characteristics. We find that, on average, the West African cattle farmer is generally more risk averse and more patient than similarly-situated respondents from Asia. Additionally, risk and time preferences are correlated with wealth, education, and religion. We find that constraints in wealth and education are associated with greater risk aversion and impatience. Furthermore, time spent in a Koranic school is positively related to the overweighting of small probabilities, greater risk-taking behavior, and patience.