Closing the Gap between Risk Estimation and Decision Making: Efficient Management of Trade-Related Invasive Species Risk
Closing the Gap between Risk Estimation and Decision Making: Efficient Management of Trade-Related Invasive Species Risk
复制标题
缩小风险评估和决策之间的差距：有效管理与贸易相关的入侵物种风险
DOI：
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发表时间：
2013
影响因子：
8
通讯作者：
Michael R. Springborn
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Robert P. Lieli;Michael R. Springborn
摘要 本文研究了二元行动、二元结果决策问题对风险评估的影响。我们使用有关生物输入侵入性的数据，对两种经典方法（最大似然法和贝叶斯法）与第三种方法（最近开发的最大效用（MU）方法）进行了首次比较。 MU 估计独特地利用了决策问题的结构，该结构取决于模型的局部拟合而不是全局拟合。通过扩展方法来解释内生分层样本，我们表明 MU 方法对规格误差不太敏感，并且可以在模型不确定性下提供显着的经济收益。
Abstract This paper examines the implications of a binary action, binary outcome decision problem for estimating risk. We use data on the invasiveness of biological imports to develop the first comparison of two classical methods—maximum likelihood and Bayesian—against a third, the recently developed maximum utility (MU) approach. MU estimation uniquely takes advantage of the structure of the decision problem, which depends on a local rather than global fit to the model. Extending methods to account for an endogenously stratified sample, we show that the MU approach is less sensitive to specification error and can offer significant economic gains under model uncertainty.