Global climate change: the potential effects on health
Global climate change: the potential effects on health
复制标题
DOI：
10.1136/bmj.315.7111.805
复制
发表时间：
1997-09-27
影响因子：
105.7
通讯作者：
Haines, A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
McMichael, AJ;Haines, A
由于人类经济活动的规模和类型，过量的二氧化碳、甲烷和其他捕获热量的气体正在对流层--地球的较低层--积累。气候科学家预测，由此导致的对流层“辐射强迫”的增加将使地球表面变暖。1 2 3事实上，政府间气候变化专门委员会--联合国1988年为向各国政府提供咨询意见而设立的一个多学科科学机构--在其最近的第二次评估报告中得出结论，总的来说，人类活动对全球气候的影响现在是“明显的”。1政府间小组预测，下个世纪世界平均气温将上升1.0-3.5摄氏度。1这一预测必然是不确定的，因为人们对气候对大气变化的敏感性认识不足，而且无法准确预测气体排放和调制过程的未来趋势(例如，工业气溶胶排放的冷却影响)。然而，预计未来一个世纪的气候变化速度将远远超过自1万年前农业问世以来世界气候的任何自然变化。
Excess carbon dioxide, methane, and other gases which trap heat are accumulating in the troposphere, the earth's lower atmosphere, because of the scale and type of human economic activity. Climate scientists predict that the resultant increase in the troposphere's “radiative forcing” will warm the earth's surface. 1 2 3 Indeed, in its recent second assessment report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change—a multidisciplinary scientific body established by the United Nations in 1988 to advise governments—concluded that on balance an anthropogenic influence upon the global climate was now “discernible.” 1The intergovernmental panel forecasts an increase in the average world temperature of 1.0-3.5 C over the coming century. 1 This forecast is necessarily uncertain because the sensitivity of climate to atmospheric change is imperfectly understood and because future trends in gaseous emissions and modulating processes (for example, the cooling effects of industrial aerosol emissions) cannot be foreseen accurately. Nevertheless, the expected rate of climate change over the coming century would be far greater than any natural change in world climate since the advent of agriculture 10 000 years ago.