Probabilistic hazard modelling of rain-triggered lahars
Probabilistic hazard modelling of rain-triggered lahars
复制标题
降雨引发的火山泥流的概率灾害模型
DOI：
10.1186/s13617-017-0060-y
复制
发表时间：
2017
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
C. Magill
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
S. Mead;C. Magill
泥石流危险性的概率量化是泥石流风险评估和减灾的重要组成部分。本文提出了一种将泥石流敏感性模型与浅层泥石流模型相结合进行泥石流危险性概率评估的新方法。初始泥沙体积及其概率是使用泥沙易感性模型来量化的，该模型从降雨强度-频率-持续时间曲线建立了可移动泥沙体积与超越概率之间的关系。然后，通过使用动员的体积作为泥石流模型的输入，可以概率性地描述由降雨触发的泥石流危险区域。虽然该模型的适用性仅限于降雨引发的泥石流，但这种方法能够减少对泥石流危险的历史和经验估计的依赖，并为生成纯粹定量的概率泥石流危险地图创造了机会。新方法通过为新西兰鲁阿佩胡火山曼加托埃努伊冰川产生的冰川生成概率危险地图进行了演示。
Probabilistic quantification of lahar hazard is an important component of lahar risk assessment and mitigation. Here we propose a new approach to probabilistic lahar hazard assessment through coupling a lahar susceptibility model with a shallow-layer lahar flow model. Initial lahar volumes and their probabilities are quantified using the lahar susceptibility model which establishes a relationship between the volume of mobilised sediment and exceedance probabilities from rainfall intensity-frequency-duration curves. Rainfall-triggered lahar hazard zones can then be delineated probabilistically by using the mobilised volumes as an input into lahar flow models. While the applicability of this model is limited to rain-triggered lahars, this approach is able to reduce the reliance on historic and empirical estimates of lahar hazard and creates an opportunity for the generation of purely quantitative probabilistic lahar hazard maps. The new approach is demonstrated through the generation of probabilistic hazard maps for lahars originating from the Mangatoetoenui Glacier, Ruapehu volcano, New Zealand.
影响因子：
5.1
作者：
M. Mergili;J. Fischer;Julia Krenn;S. Pudasaini
通讯作者：
M. Mergili;J. Fischer;Julia Krenn;S. Pudasaini
DOI：
10.1002/2014jf003183
发表时间：
2014-10
期刊：
Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface
影响因子：
--
作者：
S. Pudasaini;M. Krautblatter
通讯作者：
S. Pudasaini;M. Krautblatter
影响因子：
--
作者：
S. Pudasaini
通讯作者：
S. Pudasaini