PREDICTION OF STORM SURGE INTENSITY IN COASTAL DISASTER EVALUATION
PREDICTION OF STORM SURGE INTENSITY IN COASTAL DISASTER EVALUATION
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沿海灾害评估中的风暴潮强度预测
DOI：
10.9753/icce.v32.management.20
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发表时间：
2011
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Qiaoling Ji
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Dong;Qiaoling Ji
在沿海地区，高潮位和伴随而来的巨浪高往往会导致严重的风暴潮灾害。青岛位于中国山东半岛南端。青岛风暴潮灾害取决于台风的强度、持续时间、过境路径等多种影响因素。为了弥补警戒水位的不足，提出了一种双变量Gumbel Logistic分布预报风暴潮强度的方法。根据1949年以来青岛沿海台风过程的实测潮位记录和同期波高序列，用该模型估算了台风增水的重现期。在此基础上，提出了台风暴潮灾害强度等级划分的新标准。实例计算表明，新准则概率概念清晰，操作简便，适用于台风暴潮强度的计算。该统计模型的计算过程可为其他沿海地区的台风减灾工作提供参考。
In coastal area, serious storm surge disasters are frequently caused by the higher tidal level and concomitant huge wave heights toward shoreline. Qingdao is located at the southern tip of Shandong Peninsula of China. The storm surge disaster in Qingdao depends on various influencing factors such as the intensity, duration, and route of the passing typhoon. In order to make up the defects of the warning water level, a Poisson Bi-variable Gumbel Logistic Distribution is presented to predict storm surge intensity. On the basis of observed records of tidal level and simultaneously occurred wave height series that are sampled from typhoon processes in Qingdao coastal area of China since 1949, the return periods of typhoon surge are estimated by this model. Then a new criterion is put forward to classify intensity grade of disaster-induced typhoon surges. A practical case indicates that the new criterion is clear in probability concept, easy to operate, and fits the calculation of typhoon surge intensity. Thus the procedure with the proposed statistical model will be a reference for the disaster mitigation in the other coastal area influenced by typhoons.