Projected Strengthening of the Extratropical Surface Impacts of the Stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation
Projected Strengthening of the Extratropical Surface Impacts of the Stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation
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平流层准两年期振荡对温带表面影响的预计增强
DOI：
10.1029/2020gl089149
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发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
White Ian P.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Rao Jian;Garfinkel Chaim I;White Ian P.
利用耦合模式比较项目第5阶段和第6阶段(CMIP5/6)中具有自发准两年振荡(QBO)的最新模式，本研究探索了Holton-Tan(HT)关系和近地表对QBO的响应的预测变化。大多数模型预测，未来通过加强的HT关系，表面对QBO的响应会增强。具体地说，与历史模拟相比，在高端排放情景中，未来北大西洋涛动类响应预计将增加一倍并向东移动。即使从历史模拟到未来预测热带平流层QBO的幅度减弱，这种增强也会发生。对QBO和HT关系未来变化的看似矛盾的预测可能暗示了HT关系随QBO强度的非线性变化，背景环流结构的相干变化也应得到强调。
Using state‐of‐the‐art models with a spontaneous quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6 (CMIP5/6), this study explores projected changes in the Holton‐Tan (HT) relationship and the near‐surface response to the QBO. Most models project an enhanced surface response to the QBO via a strengthened HT relationship in the future. Specifically, the North Atlantic Oscillation‐like response is projected to double and shift eastward in the future in the high‐end emission scenarios compared with the historical simulation. This strengthening occurs even as the amplitude of the QBO in the tropical stratosphere weakens from the historical simulation to the future projections. The seemingly contradictory projections of future changes in the QBO and the HT relationship might imply that the HT relationship changes nonlinearly with the QBO intensity, and the coherent changes in the background circulation structure should also be highlighted.