Learning-by-doing and business cycles in emerging economies
Learning-by-doing and business cycles in emerging economies
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新兴经济体的边干边学和商业周期
DOI：
10.1007/s10290-020-00373-3
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发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
1.7
通讯作者：
Akihiko Ikeda
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Cheng Haitao;Kato Hayato;Obashi Ayako;Obashi Ayako;Obashi Ayako;松浦寿幸，小橋文子;Ayako Obashi;Ayako Obashi;Nobuyuki Takashima;Nobuyuki Takashima;Takashima Nobuyuki;Nobuyuki Takashima，Yasunori Ouchida;Nobuyuki Takashima;高島 伸幸;高島伸幸;Nobuyuki Takashima;高島伸幸;Akihiko Ikeda;Akihiko Ikeda;Akihiko Ikeda
本文探讨了在实践中学习是否在新兴经济体中发挥重要作用。提出了一个边干边学的商业周期模型，并利用新兴经济体和发达经济体的数据进行了估计。其表现是从预测绩效和最近研究重点关注的商业周期时刻的角度来考虑的，即消费相对于产出的高波动性和高度反周期的净出口。在预测性能方面，具有边做边学的模型优于Aguiar和Gopinath提出的趋势生产率冲击（J Polit Econ 115（1）：69-102，2007），并且它还可以复制关键的商业周期时刻。这是通过加强生产力冲击的持续性和影响家庭对永久收入的预期而实现的。此外，该模型与观察到的商业周期时刻和增长率之间的关系是一致的。这些结果表明，在新兴经济体中边干边学的重要作用，并暗示了新兴经济体和发达经济体商业周期差异的可能原因。
This paper examines whether learning-by-doing plays an important role in emerging economies. A business cycle model with learning-by-doing is presented and estimated using the data of emerging and developed economies. Its performance is considered from the viewpoint of predictive performance and the business cycle moments focused on in recent studies, namely, high volatility of consumption relative to that of output, and highly countercyclical net exports. The model with learning-by-doing outperforms the trend productivity shocks proposed by Aguiar and Gopinath (J Polit Econ 115(1):69–102, 2007) in predictive performance and it can also replicate the key business cycle moments. This is made possible through enhancing the persistence of productivity shocks and affecting the household’s expectation of permanent income. Further, the model is consistent with the observed relationships between the business cycle moments and growth rates. These results suggest the essential role of learning-by-doing in emerging economies and imply a possible reason for the difference in business cycles in emerging and developed economies.