Atmospheric River Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss in the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project
Atmospheric River Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss in the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project
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DOI：
10.1029/2021gl094883
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发表时间：
2021-10
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Weiming Ma;Gang Chen;Y. Peings;Noah Alviz
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Weiming Ma;Gang Chen;Y. Peings;Noah Alviz
利用极地放大模式相互比较项目的模拟研究了大气河流（AR）对北方冬季北极海冰损失的响应。结果表明，中纬度的响应主要受动力效应的影响。在60°N左右的极向上，动力学和热力学效应相互抵消，导致响应相对较小。响应的不确定性可以用主导不确定性模态来表征，太平洋和大西洋的响应分别投射到东北向扩展和赤道向移动模态。此外，响应似乎是平均状态依赖的：在相同的强迫下，具有更多极地气候AR的模式倾向于在大西洋上显示更强的赤道移动;在太平洋上，具有更多向西向气候AR核心的模式倾向于显示更强的东北延伸。这些关系强调了改善AR气候学表示对减少北极海冰损失响应不确定性的重要性。
The atmospheric river (AR) response to Arctic sea ice loss in the Northern hemisphere winter is investigated using simulations from the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project. Results have shown that the midlatitude responses are dominated by dynamic effects. Poleward of around 60°N , the dynamic and thermodynamic effects cancel each other, resulting in relatively small responses. The response uncertainty can be characterized by leading uncertainty modes, with the responses over the Pacific and Atlantic projecting onto the northeastward extension and equatorward shift mode, respectively. In addition, the responses seem to be mean state‐dependent: under the same forcing, models with more poleward‐located climatological ARs tend to show stronger equatorward shifts over the Atlantic; over the Pacific, models with more westward‐located climatological AR core tend to show stronger northeastward extensions. These relationships highlight the importance of improving the AR climatology representation on reducing the response uncertainty to Arctic sea ice loss.