Climate change threatens pollination services in tomato crops in Brazil
Climate change threatens pollination services in tomato crops in Brazil
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DOI：
10.1016/j.agee.2017.01.026
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发表时间：
2017-02-15
影响因子：
6.6
通讯作者：
Sujii, Edison R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Elias, Marcos A. S.;Borges, Fabio J. A.;Sujii, Edison R.
了解气候变化如何影响物种分布，有助于预测未来生态系统服务（如授粉）可能受到的损害。我们研究了气候变化对五种本地蜜蜂地理分布的潜在影响，并估计了蜜蜂分布变化对巴西番茄作物的可能影响。在两种碳排放情景下，通过五种算法实现集合预测，预测了2100年五种番茄访花蜂的范围变化。然后，我们计算了在每种情况下，每种蜜蜂物种至少具有50%蜜蜂适宜性的细胞中的番茄作物总面积。结果表明，在两种情况下，所有物种在适宜区域的数量都会减少。2100年，在乐观和悲观的情景下，单株树的面积减少幅度最大，分别接近38%和71%。在相同的情况下，Centris tarsata的面积减少较小，分别为8.5%和19.5%。目前观察到的番茄作物和蜜蜂分布之间的高度一致性也将在所有物种的两种情景中降低，特别是在悲观情景中。由于生境适宜性，单一念珠菌的范围缩小幅度最大，将局限于巴西东南部和南部的一些地区。在悲观的排放情景下，目前在单芽孢杆菌分布范围内的60%以上的番茄种植区将变得气候不适宜。该研究表明，到2100年，预测的气候变化可能会对巴西番茄作物相关的几种物种产生负面影响。这是令人不安的，因为它可能导致番茄生产损失，这将给番茄生产地区带来经济和环境损失，并影响传粉媒介的保护。(C) 2017 Elsevier B.V.版权所有
Understanding how climate change may affect species distribution helps predict how ecosystem services, such as pollination, could be impaired in the future. We examine the potential consequences of climate change on the geographical distribution of five native bee species and estimate the possible effects of bee distribution shifts on tomato crops in Brazil. Ensemble forecasting was implemented through five algorithms in two carbon emission scenarios to predict range shifts for five tomato-visiting bee species for the year 2100. We then calculated the total tomato crop area in the cells with at least 50% bee suitability, for each bee species, in each scenario. Results showed that all species will undergo a reduction in suitable areas in both scenarios. Bombus mono had the greatest area reduction in 2100 under the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios: near 38% and 71%, respectively. Centris tarsata had the smaller area reduction under the same scenarios: 8.5% and 19.5% respectively. The high agreement between tomato crops and bee distribution observed in the present will also be reduced in both Scenarios for all species, especially in the pessimistic scenario. B. mono had the highest reduction in range due to habitat suitability and will be restricted to some parts of southeastern and southern Brazil. Over 60% of the tomato crop area presently within the distribution of B. mono will become climatically unsuitable in the pessimistic emission scenario. This study indicates that the predicted climate change may negatively impact several species associated with tomato crops in Brazil by the year 2100. This is troubling, as it could result in tomato production losses, which would bring economic and environmental losses to the tomato-producing regions with implications for pollinator conservation. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.