Dynamic Modeling of Inland Flooding and Storm Surge on Coastal Cities under Climate Change Scenarios: Transportation Infrastructure Impacts in Norfolk, Virginia USA as a Case Study
Dynamic Modeling of Inland Flooding and Storm Surge on Coastal Cities under Climate Change Scenarios: Transportation Infrastructure Impacts in Norfolk, Virginia USA as a Case Study
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DOI：
10.3390/geosciences12060224
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发表时间：
2022-05
期刊：
影响因子：
2.7
通讯作者：
Yawen Shen;N. Tahvildari;Mohamed M. Morsy;C. Huxley;T. D. Chen;J. Goodall
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Yawen Shen;N. Tahvildari;Mohamed M. Morsy;C. Huxley;T. D. Chen;J. Goodall
世界各地的低洼沿海城市容易受到降雨和风暴潮的综合影响。然而，现有的方法缺乏模拟这些洪水机制的综合影响的能力，特别是在气候变化和海平面上升（SLR）。因此，为了提高沿海城市的洪水恢复力，建模技术，以提高这些洪水灾害的综合影响的理解和预测是至关重要的。为了满足这一需求，本研究提出了一种建模系统，用于评估选定的未来气候情景下，利用海洋建模与陆地表面建模能够解决城市内的城市排水基础设施的沿海城市的综合洪水影响。模拟方法被证明在量化的影响，未来可能的气候情景对交通基础设施内诺福克，弗吉尼亚州，美国。一系列的组合风暴事件模拟当前（2020年）和预测未来（2070年）的气候情景。结果表明，在当前气候条件下，洪泛对交通网络造成的中断比潮汐洪水更大。然而，到2070年，潮汐洪水将成为主要的洪水机制，由于SLR，预计每天都会发生滋扰性洪水。到2070年，预计滋扰性洪水将导致4.6%的总链路关闭时间（TLC），这是2020年50年一遇风暴潮（1.8% TLC）的两倍多。耦合洪水模型进行了比较，广泛使用的，但物理上简单的浴缸的方法，以评估在这项研究中提出的更复杂的建模所造成的差异。结果表明：对于2020年和2070年的10年一遇风暴潮，浴盆法分别高估了海岸线附近的洪泛面积9.5%和3.1%，而低估了内陆地区的洪泛面积9.0%和4.0%。研究结果表明，与更简单的浴缸方法相比，复杂的建模方法在沿海社区的气候适应性规划和政策中具有优势。
Low-lying coastal cities across the world are vulnerable to the combined impact of rainfall and storm tide. However, existing approaches lack the ability to model the combined effect of these flood mechanisms, especially under climate change and sea level rise (SLR). Thus, to increase flood resilience of coastal cities, modeling techniques to improve the understanding and prediction of the combined effect of these flood hazards are critical. To address this need, this study presents a modeling system for assessing the combined flood impact on coastal cities under selected future climate scenarios that leverages ocean modeling with land surface modeling capable of resolving urban drainage infrastructure within the city. The modeling approach is demonstrated in quantifying the impact of possible future climate scenarios on transportation infrastructure within Norfolk, Virginia, USA. A series of combined storm events are modeled for current (2020) and projected future (2070) climate scenarios. The results show that pluvial flooding causes a larger interruption to the transportation network compared to tidal flooding under current climate conditions. By 2070, however, tidal flooding will be the dominant flooding mechanism with even nuisance flooding expected to happen daily due to SLR. In 2070, nuisance flooding is expected to cause a 4.6% total link close time (TLC), which is more than two times that of a 50-year storm surge (1.8% TLC) in 2020. The coupled flood model was compared with a widely used but physically simplistic bathtub method to assess the difference resulting from the more complex modeling presented in this study. The results show that the bathtub method overestimated the flooded area near the shoreline by 9.5% and 3.1% for a 10-year storm surge event in 2020 and 2070, respectively, but underestimated the flooded area in the inland region by 9.0% and 4.0% for the same events. The findings demonstrate the benefit of sophisticated modeling methods compared to more simplistic bathtub approaches, in climate adaptive planning and policy in coastal communities.