Observed changes in extreme temperature and precipitation over Indonesia
Observed changes in extreme temperature and precipitation over Indonesia
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DOI：
10.1002/joc.4829
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发表时间：
2017-03
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Supari;F. Tangang;L. Juneng;E. Aldrian
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Supari;F. Tangang;L. Juneng;E. Aldrian
本文根据气候变化探测和指数专家小组（ETCCDI）推荐的极端指数子集，记录了过去30年（1983-2012）印度尼西亚极端气候的变化。极端指数是根据88个气象站的质量控制的每日观测数据（最低和最高温度和降水量）计算的。总体而言，我们发现印度尼西亚温度指数的显著和空间一致的变暖趋势，与东南亚不同国家进行的其他研究一致。冷日（TX 10 p）和冷夜（TN 10 p）的频率减少，而暖日（TX 90 p）和暖夜（TN 90 p）的频率增加。在全国范围内，日最高气温（TXmean）和日最低气温（TNmean）的年平均值分别显著增加了0.18和0.30 °C。其他温度指数也显示出明显的变暖趋势。相反，降水极端指数的趋势一般不显着，空间连贯性较低。然而，与全球范围的结果一致，观察到了更加湿润的趋势。在所研究的时期内，全国的日降水强度（SDII）显著增加了0.21毫米/天/10/10。在区域尺度上，我们观察到一个显着的湿润趋势，在年最高日量（RX 1天）和降雨量的贡献，在该国的北方部分的极端非常潮湿的日子（R99 p）。在国家和区域两级，12月-1月-2月（DJF）和/或3月-4月-5月（MAM）季节突出地描绘了一些极端降水指数的湿润趋势。然而，对于印度尼西亚南部地区，6月-7月-8月（JJA）、9月-10月-11月（SON）和MAM观察到干燥趋势。
This paper documents the changes in climate extremes over Indonesia during the past three decades (1983–2012) based on a subset of extreme indices recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The extreme indices were calculated based on the quality controlled daily observational data (minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation) from 88 weather stations. Overall, we found significant and spatially coherent trends of warming in the temperature indices over Indonesia, consistent with other studies conducted at different countries within the Southeast Asia. The frequency of cool days (TX10p) and cools nights (TN10p) had decreased whereas warm days (TX90p) and warm nights (TN90p) were observed more frequently. Averaged over the country, the annual mean of daily maximum (TXmean) and minimum temperature (TNmean) had increased significantly by 0.18 and 0.30 °C decade−1, respectively. Other temperature indices also showed significant warming trends. In contrast, trends in the precipitation extremes indices were generally not significant and less spatially coherent. However, a tendency towards wetter conditions was observed, in agreement with the results at the global scale. The daily precipitation intensity (SDII) had increased significantly over the country by 0.21 mm day−1 decade−1 during the period studied. At the regional scale, we observed a significant wetting trend in the annual highest daily amount (RX1day) and the rainfall amount contributed by the extremely very wet days (R99p) in the northern part of the country. The wetting trends of a number of extreme precipitation indices were depicted prominently in December–January–February (DJF) and/or March–April–May (MAM) seasons, both at country and regional levels. However, for the southern region of Indonesia, a drying tendency was observed for June–July–August (JJA), September–October–November (SON) and MAM.