Future changes in Yuan River ecohydrology: Individual and cumulative impacts of climates change and cascade hydropower development on runoff and aquatic habitat quality.
Future changes in Yuan River ecohydrology: Individual and cumulative impacts of climates change and cascade hydropower development on runoff and aquatic habitat quality.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.03.309
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发表时间：
2018-04
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
X. Wen;Zhehua Liu;Xiao Lei;Rongjie Lin;G. Fang;Q. Tan;Chao Wang;Yu Tian;J. Quan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
X. Wen;Zhehua Liu;Xiao Lei;Rongjie Lin;G. Fang;Q. Tan;Chao Wang;Yu Tian;J. Quan
近几十年来，由于气候变化和广泛的梯级水电开发，中国西南部的生态水文系统正在发生巨大变化。随着人们越来越多地认识到多个驱动因素往往以复杂和非相加的方式相互作用，本研究的目的是预测未来袁河径流和鱼类栖息地质量的潜在变化，并量化梯级筑坝和气候变化的单独和累积影响。利用经偏差校正和空间尺度缩小的耦合模式比对项目第五阶段(CMIP5)一般环流模式(GCM)投影来驱动土壤和水评估工具(SWAT)水文模型，并模拟和预测不同情景下的径流响应。建立物理栖息地模拟模型，量化河流水文与鱼类栖息地的关系，并用相对变化率来评估梯级筑坝和气候变化的单独影响和联合影响。与1951-2010年相比，2015-2100年的年平均气温、降水量和径流量均呈增加趋势，干旱年和多雨年的差异尤为明显。梯级水电开发将生态要求纳入水库调度政策，改善了生态栖息地的质量。中游地区1~8月径流变化主要受筑坝影响，9~12月枯水期气候变化影响更为明显。由于水库调节能力有限，梯级开发只在枯水期对下游径流产生影响，而气候变化对枯水期径流有影响。气候变化对中游鱼类栖息地质量的影响不如筑坝显著，但对下游的影响更为显著。此外，气候变化对下游鱼类栖息地质量的影响在枯水期较大，在汛期较小。
The eco-hydrological system in southwestern China is undergoing great changes in recent decades owing to climate change and extensive cascading hydropower exploitation. With a growing recognition that multiple drivers often interact in complex and nonadditive ways, the purpose of this study is to predict the potential future changes in streamflow and fish habitat quality in the Yuan River and quantify the individual and cumulative effect of cascade damming and climate change. The bias corrected and spatial downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) General Circulation Model (GCM) projections are employed to drive the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model and to simulate and predict runoff responses under diverse scenarios. Physical habitat simulation model is established to quantify the relationship between river hydrology and fish habitat, and the relative change rate is used to assess the individual and combined effects of cascade damming and climate change. Mean annual temperature, precipitation and runoff in 2015–2100 show an increasing trend compared with that in 1951–2010, with a particularly pronounced difference between dry and wet years. The ecological habitat quality is improved under cascade hydropower development since that ecological requirement has been incorporated in the reservoir operation policy. As for middle reach, the runoff change from January to August is determined mainly by damming, and climate change influence becomes more pronounced in dry seasons from September to December. Cascade development has an effect on runoff of lower reach only in dry seasons due to the limited regulation capacity of reservoirs, and climate changes have an effect on runoff in wet seasons. Climate changes have a less significant effect on fish habitat quality in middle reach than damming, but a more significant effect in lower reach. In addition, the effect of climate changes on fish habitat quality in lower reach is high in dry seasons but low in flood seasons.