The Conquest of American Inflation
The Conquest of American Inflation
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征服美国通货膨胀
DOI：
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发表时间：
1999
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
T. Sargent
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
T. Sargent
本书分析了1960年后美国通货膨胀的上升和下降，考察了这一时期通货膨胀和失业行为的两种广泛解释：自然率假设与卢卡斯批评相结合，以及更传统的计量经济学政策评估，修改后包括适应性预期和学习。本文首先解释了20世纪60年代初美国政策制定者是如何通过对菲利普斯曲线（通货膨胀和失业之间的反比关系）的可利用性的错误假设来提高通货膨胀率的。在随后的章节中，它连接了一系列的想法，如自确认平衡，最小二乘法和其他自适应或递归学习算法。作者综合了宏观经济学、博弈论、控制论等领域的研究成果，对适应性预期和理性预期理论进行了扩展，用漂移系数解释了战后通货膨胀。他解释说，他的结果有利于适应性预期作为影响通货膨胀政策的相关机制。这本书是为学者，研究生和专业经济学家。
Presenting an analysis of the rise and fall of U.S. inflation after 1960, this book examines two broad explanations for the behaviour of inflation and unemployment in this period: the natural-rate hypothesis joined to the Lucas critique and a more traditional econometric policy evaluation modified to include adaptive expectations and learning. The text begins with an explanation of how American policymakers increased inflation in the early 1960s by following erroneous assumptions about the exploitability of the Phillips curve - the inverse-relationship between inflation and unemployment. In subsequent chapters, it connects a sequence of ideas, such as self-confirming equilibria, least-squares and other adaptive or recursive learning algorithms. The author synthesizes results from macroeconomics, game theory, control theory, and other fields to extend both adaptive expectations and rational expectations theory, and he explains postwar inflation in terms of drifting coefficients. He interprets his results in favour of adaptive expectations as the relevant mechanism affecting inflation policy. This book is intended for academics, graduate students, and professional economists.