Heat stress on agricultural workers exacerbates crop impacts of climate change
Heat stress on agricultural workers exacerbates crop impacts of climate change
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/abeb9f
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发表时间：
2021-04-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Hertel, Thomas W.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
de Lima, Cicero Z.;Buzan, Jonathan R.;Hertel, Thomas W.
气候变化对作物产量和人类健康的直接影响已经单独得到了很好的研究，但两者之间的相互作用却很少受到关注。在这里，我们使用全球经济模型(GTAP)分析全球变暖对农业工人和他们种植的作物的后果，该模型明确处理了热应激对人类工作能力的生理影响。基于两个热应激指标和两个劳动力函数，结合对作物产量的荟萃分析，我们分析了气候变化对农业劳动力和主要作物产量的影响，从而解释了气候变化对土地和劳动力的交互影响。这里我们分析了这两组对主食作物的影响，同时也扩大了劳动力影响，以突出对副食作物的潜在重要性。我们发现，在世界范围内，相对于1986-2005年的基线，主食谷物中的劳动力和产量影响在+3摄氏度变暖时同样重要。此外，被广泛忽视的劳动力影响在两个最脆弱的地区占主导地位：撒哈拉以南非洲和东南亚。在这些地区，全球变暖3摄氏度的高温压力可能会使农业劳动力减少30%-50%，推高食品价格，并要求农业部门提高就业水平。全球在这一变暖水平下的福利损失可能达到1360亿美元，农作物价格相对于基线上涨5%。
The direct impacts of climate change on crop yields and human health are individually well-studied, but the interaction between the two have received little attention. Here we analyze the consequences of global warming for agricultural workers and the crops they cultivate using a global economic model (GTAP) with explicit treatment of the physiological impacts of heat stress on humans' ability to work. Based on two metrics of heat stress and two labor functions, combined with a meta-analysis of crop yields, we provide an analysis of climate, impacts both on agricultural labor force, as well as on staple crop yields, thereby accounting for the interacting effect of climate change on both land and labor. Here we analyze the two sets of impacts on staple crops, while also expanding the labor impacts to highlight the potential importance on non-staple crops. We find, worldwide, labor and yield impacts within staple grains are equally important at +3 C warming, relative to the 1986-2005 baseline. Furthermore, the widely overlooked labor impacts are dominant in two of the most vulnerable regions: sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia. In those regions, heat stress with 3 C global warming could reduce labor capacity in agriculture by 30%-50%, increasing food prices and requiring much higher levels of employment in the farm sector. The global welfare loss at this level of warming could reach $136 billion, with crop prices rising by 5%, relative to baseline.