Vulnerability assessment of water resources in Egypt to climatic change in the Nile Basin
Vulnerability assessment of water resources in Egypt to climatic change in the Nile Basin
复制标题
埃及水资源对尼罗河流域气候变化的脆弱性评估
DOI：
10.3354/cr006089
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发表时间：
1996
期刊：
影响因子：
1.1
通讯作者：
D.E.D. El Quosy
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
K. Strzepek;D. Yates;D.E.D. El Quosy
利用模拟模型评价了全球气候变化对尼罗河流域水资源的影响。评估了四种气候变化情景(Baseline、GISS、GFDL和UKMO)。尼罗河气候变化的全部影响不能完全有把握地预测，因为一些模型预测流量增加，而另一些模型预测流量显著减少。此外，据观察，尼罗河流量对环境温度和降水量的变化极其敏感，气候波动的影响可能会很严重。确定了几种水管理选择，以帮助使Nlle River管理适应不断变化的全球气候。
The impacts of global climate change on the water resources of the Nile River Basin were evaluated using simulation models. Four climate change scenarios were evaluated (baseline, GISS, GFDL, and UKMO). The complete impact of climatic changes in the Nile cannot be fully predicted with confidence, as some models forecast increased flows, while others project significant decreases. Hourever, it was observed that the Nile River flow is extremely sensitive to ambient temperature and precipitatlon changes, and it is possible that the effects of climatic fluctuations would be severe. Several water management options were identified to help adapt Nlle River management to a changing global climate.