Projections of Future Climate Change in the 21 st Century Simulated by the CCSR / NIES CGCM under the IPCC SRES Scenarios
Projections of Future Climate Change in the 21 st Century Simulated by the CCSR / NIES CGCM under the IPCC SRES Scenarios
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CCSR / NIES CGCM 在 IPCC SRES 情景下模拟的 21 世纪未来气候变化预测
DOI：
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发表时间：
2001
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Kimoto
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Toru;Nozawa;Seita;Emori;Atusi;Numaguti;Yoko;Tsushima;Toshihiko;Takemura;Teruyuki;Nakajima;Ayako;Abe;Ouchi;Masahide;Kimoto
基于政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）排放情景特别报告（SRES），进行了海洋-大气瞬态耦合模式试验，探讨了人为硫酸盐和碳质气溶胶在未来气候变化预估中的直接和间接影响。对A1、A2、B1和B2四种说明性“标记”情景进行了数值模拟。在所有情景中，碳质气溶胶的直接辐射强迫几乎抵消了硫酸盐气溶胶的直接辐射强迫。在21世纪下半叶，估计的总间接辐射强迫在A1、B1和B2情景下约为-1.3 Wm-2，在A2情景下约为-2.0 Wm-2。由于CO2增加的辐射强迫占主导地位，所有情景下地表气温的全球和年平均值都增加了。由于气溶胶产生的间接强迫具有显著的冷却作用，人为的硫酸盐和碳质气溶胶的增加减缓了全球变暖的速度。2100年全球平均温度变化相对于1961 - 1990年的平均值最大，A2为5.5°C，而B1最小，约为3.3°C。地表变暖的地理分布不太取决于情景。云反馈在21世纪下半叶占据主导地位，导致地表进一步变暖。
Transient coupled ocean-atmosphere model experiments based on the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were done to investigate the direct and indirect climate impacts of the anthropogenic sulfate and carbonaceous aerosols in the future projections of climate change. The numerical simulations are carried out for all four illustrative “marker” scenarios of A1, A2, B1, and B2. Direct radiative forcing of the carbonaceous aerosols nearly cancels out that of the sulfate aerosols for all scenarios. Estimated total indirect radiative forcing is about –1.3 Wm–2 for the A1, B1, and B2 scenarios, and is about –2.0 Wm–2 for the A2 scenario in the latter half of the 21st century. Global and annual averages of the surface air temperature increase for all scenarios because of the dominance of the radiative forcing of the increased CO2. The global warming is decelerated with an increase in the anthropogenic sulfate and carbonaceous aerosols, because the indirect forcing due to the aerosols has a significant cooling effect. The global mean temperature change in 2100 with respect to the 1961–90 average is the largest and is about 5.5°C for A2, whereas it is the smallest and is about 3.3°C for B1. Geographical distribution of the surface warming does not depend much on the scenarios. Cloud feedback becomes dominant in the latter half of the 21st century, which introduces further warming at the surface.