Predicted change in global secondary organic aerosol concentrations in response to future climate, emissions, and land use change
Predicted change in global secondary organic aerosol concentrations in response to future climate, emissions, and land use change
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DOI：
10.1029/2007jd009092
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发表时间：
2008-03-11
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Fung, I.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Heald, C. L.;Henze, D. K.;Fung, I.
使用由 2100 年 IPCC A1B 情景预测驱动的全球大气-陆地耦合模型研究了二次有机气溶胶 (SOA) 浓度对气候和排放变化的敏感性。群落大气模型 (CAM3) 已根据最近实验室确定的单萜氧化、异戊二烯光氧化和芳香族光氧化形成 SOA 的产率进行了更新。使用社区土地模型 (CLM3) 内的气体和气溶胶排放模型 (MEGAN2) 交互模拟异戊二烯和单萜的生物排放。预计到 2100 年，全球平均 SOA 负担将增加 36%，这主要是生物排放和人为排放增加的结果，这两种排放分别使负担增加 26% 和 7%。后者包括由于主要有机气溶胶排放量的增加（2100 年地表 SOA 浓度增加 5-25%）而增强的生物 SOA 形成。仅气候变化（通过温度、去除率和氧化能力）不会改变全球平均 SOA 产量，但全球负担增加了 6%。由于气候和排放的净影响，2100 年人为 SOA 的全球负担比生物 SOA 的增长比例更大（预计增长 67%）。预计 2100 年人为土地利用变化 (A2) 将使全球 SOA 负担减少 14%，这主要是农田扩张的结果。南美洲是当今和 2100 年全球最大的 SOA 来源地区，但由于亚洲人为芳香族排放量预计将大幅增加，到 2100 年，亚洲的 SOA 产量相对增长幅度最大。全球硫排放量的预计下降意味着 SOA 将在全球气溶胶负担中所占的比例逐渐增大。
The sensitivity of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) concentration to changes in climate and emissions is investigated using a coupled global atmosphere-land model driven by the year 2100 IPCC A1B scenario predictions. The Community Atmosphere Model (CAM3) is updated with recent laboratory determined yields for SOA formation from monoterpene oxidation, isoprene photooxidation and aromatic photooxidation. Biogenic emissions of isoprene and monoterpenes are simulated interactively using the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols (MEGAN2) within the Community Land Model (CLM3). The global mean SOA burden is predicted to increase by 36% in 2100, primarily the result of rising biogenic and anthropogenic emissions which independently increase the burden by 26% and 7%. The later includes enhanced biogenic SOA formation due to increased emissions of primary organic aerosol (5-25% increases in surface SOA concentrations in 2100). Climate change alone (via temperature, removal rates, and oxidative capacity) does not change the global mean SOA production, but the global burden increases by 6%. The global burden of anthropogenic SOA experiences proportionally more growth than biogenic SOA in 2100 from the net effect of climate and emissions (67% increase predicted). Projected anthropogenic land use change for 2100 (A2) is predicted to reduce the global SOA burden by 14%, largely the result of cropland expansion. South America is the largest global source region for SOA in the present day and 2100, but Asia experiences the largest relative growth in SOA production by 2100 because of the large predicted increases in Asian anthropogenic aromatic emissions. The projected decrease in global sulfur emissions implies that SOA will contribute a progressively larger fraction of the global aerosol burden.