THE INVASION, PERSISTENCE AND SPREAD OF INFECTIOUS-DISEASES WITHIN ANIMAL AND PLANT-COMMUNITIES
THE INVASION, PERSISTENCE AND SPREAD OF INFECTIOUS-DISEASES WITHIN ANIMAL AND PLANT-COMMUNITIES
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DOI：
10.1098/rstb.1986.0072
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发表时间：
1986-12-15
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
MAY, RM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
ANDERSON, RM;MAY, RM
最近对传染病种群生物学的理论和经验研究有助于我们更好地理解影响成功入侵的三个阶段的主要因素，即初步建立、长期持续和传播到其他宿主社区。在所有三个阶段中，最重要的是寄生虫的基本繁殖率或传播潜力的大小。这一参数的值由个体寄生虫与其宿主之间的联系及其种群之间的相互作用的各种生物学特性决定。最近在北美和欧洲流行的获得性免疫缺陷综合征(艾滋病)被用来说明促进疾病建立和传播的因素。同性恋社区内每单位时间内不同性伴人数的频率分布对艾滋病发病率的未来趋势具有至关重要的作用。病原体入侵的更广泛的方面是通过参考三个物种关联的简单数学模型来研究的，这些模型反映了寄生虫引入驻留的捕食者-猎物、宿主-寄生虫和竞争相互作用。许多结果是可能的，这取决于影响多物种种群相互作用的众多参数的值。病原体入侵对生态群落的结构和稳定性具有深远的影响。
Recent theoretical and empirical studies of the population biology of infectious diseases have helped to improve our understanding of the major factors that influence the three phases of a successful invasion, namely initial establishment, persistence in the longer term and spread to other host communities. Of central importance in all three phases is the magnitude of the basic reproductive rate or transmission potential of the parasite. The value of this parameter is determined by a variety of biological properties of the association between an individual parasite and its host and the interaction between their populations. The recent epidemic of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) in North America and Europe is employed to illustrate the factors that promote disease establishment and spread. The frequency distribution of the number of different sexual partners per unit of time within homosexual communities is shown to be of central importance with respect to future trends in the incidence of AIDS. Broader aspects of pathogen invasion are examined by reference to simple mathematical models of three species associations, which mirror parasite introduction into resident predator-prey, host-parasite and competitive interactions. Many outcomes are possible, depending on the values of the numerous parameters that influence multi-species population interactions. Pathogen invasion is shown to have far-reaching implications for the structure and stability of ecological communities.