Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production
Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production
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DOI：
10.1038/nature15725
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发表时间：
2015-11-12
期刊：
影响因子：
64.8
通讯作者：
Miguel, Edward
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Burke, Marshall;Hsiang, Solomon M.;Miguel, Edward
越来越多的证据表明，气候条件可以对现代人类社会的运作产生深远的影响（1，2），但对经济活动的影响似乎不一致。现代经济的基本生产要素，如工人和农作物，即使在富裕国家也会对当地温度表现出高度非线性的反应（3，4）。相比之下，据报道，整个富裕国家的总体宏观经济生产力对温度没有反应（5），而贫穷国家的反应只有线性（5，6）。解决微观和宏观观测之间的冲突对于理解财富在耦合的人类-自然系统中的作用（7，8）和预测气候变化的全球影响（9，10）至关重要。在这里，我们统一这些看似矛盾的结果，占在宏观尺度上的非线性。我们发现，所有国家的整体经济生产力在温度方面都是非线性的，生产力在年平均温度为13摄氏度时达到峰值，在更高的温度下急剧下降。这种关系是全球通用的，自1960年以来没有变化，在富国和穷国的农业和非农业活动中都很明显。这些结果提供了第一个证据，表明所有地区的经济活动都与全球气候相关联，并为应对气候变化的经济损失建模建立了新的经验基础（11，12），具有重要意义。如果未来的适应模仿过去的适应，那么与没有气候变化的情景相比，到2100年，未缓解的变暖预计将重塑全球经济，使全球平均收入减少约23%，并扩大全球收入不平等。与先前的估计相反，预期的全球损失与全球平均温度近似呈线性关系，损失中值比主要模型显示的大许多倍。
Growing evidence demonstrates that climatic conditions can have a profound impact on the functioning of modern human societies(1,2), but effects on economic activity appear inconsistent. Fundamental productive elements of modern economies, such as workers and crops, exhibit highly non-linear responses to local temperature even in wealthy countries(3,4). In contrast, aggregate macroeconomic productivity of entire wealthy countries is reported not to respond to temperature(5), while poor countries respond only linearly(5,6). Resolving this conflict between micro and macro observations is critical to understanding the role of wealth in coupled human-natural systems(7,8) and to anticipating the global impact of climate change(9,10). Here we unify these seemingly contradictory results by accounting for non-linearity at the macro scale. We show that overall economic productivity is non-linear in temperature for all countries, with productivity peaking at an annual average temperature of 13 degrees C and declining strongly at higher temperatures. The relationship is globally generalizable, unchanged since 1960, and apparent for agricultural and non-agricultural activity in both rich and poor countries. These results provide the first evidence that economic activity in all regions is coupled to the global climate and establish a new empirical foundation for modelling economic loss in response to climate change(11,12), with important implications. If future adaptation mimics past adaptation, unmitigated warming is expected to reshape the global economy by reducing average global incomes roughly 23% by 2100 and widening global income inequality, relative to scenarios without climate change. In contrast to prior estimates, expected global losses are approximately linear in global mean temperature, with median losses many times larger than leading models indicate.