Fitting age-specific fertility rates by a flexible generalized skew normal probability density function
Fitting age-specific fertility rates by a flexible generalized skew normal probability density function
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DOI：
10.1111/rssa.12053
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发表时间：
2015-01-01
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Scarpa, Bruno
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Mazzuco, Stefano;Scarpa, Bruno
混合概率密度函数最近被用来描述一些以双峰型为特征的育性模式。当生育率模式实际上是双峰模式时，这些函数是足够的，但当特定年龄的生育率形状是单峰模式时，它们似乎没有那么有用。提出了一种基于灵活的斜对称概率密度函数的模型。该模型可以拟合对称模式和偏态模式，也可以反映在某些生育模式中观察到的驼峰。它比混合分布更简约，更灵活，与几种形状(双峰或单峰)的育性模式表现出很好的拟合。对所提出的模型进行了实证评估，并对1952-2003年的意大利数据和1933-2006年的美国数据进行了与其他函数的比较。
Mixture probability density functions have recently been proposed to describe some fertility patterns characterized by a bimodal shape. These functions are adequate when the fertility pattern is actually bimodal, but they appear to be less useful when the shape of age-specific fertility rates is unimodal. A further model is proposed, based on flexible skew symmetric probability density functions. This model can fit symmetric and skew patterns as well as reflect humps that are observed in some fertility patterns. It is more parsimonious than mixture distributions and more flexible, showing a good fit with several shapes (bimodal or unimodal) of fertility patterns. Empirical evaluation of the model proposed and comparisons with other functions for Italian data from 1952 to 2003 and US data from 1933 to 2006 are also discussed.